Boyhood won the BAFTA last night. But on Saturday, the Directors Guild picked Birdman. The DGAs are considered a very, very, VERY good predictor of Oscar Best Picture; only 7 times in history have the DGA and the Academy picked differently. Even still, Boyhood has its share of support. So with a week to go before the voting period closes, it’s a legitimate race. A tight race. Just as it is for Best Actor.
But Eddie Redmayne has been relentless, hasn’t he? BAFTA picked him over Michael Keaton and Benedict Cumberbatch. At this point, it looks like Cumberbatch is done. As for Keaton, I mean I respect that he just didn’t want to seem so desperate for it but, at the same time, after the year of the McConaissance, when the Academy was gifted with a candidate who brought so much entertainment along with him, it’s that much more noticeable when you go to Critics’ Choice and appear to shrug. I’m not saying he was actually shrugging. I’m just describing the “perception”. You know how these people are. They can easily mistake dignity for apathy. You juxtapose that with Eddie’s earnestness and, well, we’re looking at a photo finish. Which works for me. Tension is good.
So start thinking about your ballots. The Annual Prediction Contest is coming up. I’m picking the prize this weekend. A luxury handbag is yours if you get the most right.