We’ve been talking about how this is the most competitive Best Actress Oscar race in years. It’s also looking like a pretty tight race for Best Picture. La La Land took early momentum. Moonlight is surging right now. (If you haven’t seen Moonlight, see Moonlight.) And Manchester By The Sea is right there too, as the film’s lead actor, alleged sexual harasser Casey Affleck, is pretty much a lock for Best Actor.

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations yesterday. Moonlight and Manchester were both nominated for Best Ensemble, the SAG equivalent of Best Picture. La La Land, however, was nominated for Best Actor and Actress (Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone) individually, but not in the ensemble category. That may be because the film relies mostly on their chemistry, just two people, known as a “two-hander” but as The Hollywood Reporter pointed out yesterday, it’s not like other two-handers in the past haven’t been nominated for SAGs. Like The Theory Of Everything and Dallas Buyers Club.

So… does that mean La La Land has lost the lead? Per THR, “only one film in the 21 years in which the best ensemble prize previously was presented was not nominated for it but still won the best picture Oscar”. That said, many films have won the SAG ensemble only to lose at the Oscars. Maybe the lesson here is… no one f-cking knows anything.

Here’s Emma Stone promoting La La Land in London yesterday. Damian Chazelle was there too. But no Ryan Gosling. How does he get out of everything?