Arguments for:
-Reel Steel was a surprise (modest) success. And he's now back on Broadway, winning favour with fans and critics.
-Look at him
-He's accessible, he's the nicest person ever, he's awesome with his kids, he's happy, always, whenever we see him, he's lovely to his wife, who doesn't love him???

Arguments against:
-He's already been the SMA. Those who've been given the title more than once include George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Johnny Depp. I'm sorry. I adore Hugh. But on star power, he doesn't belong on their level. And Reel Steel doesn't warrant a double. That would take an Oscar from him. Or a massive, massive box office.
-He's not American. Sorry to keep repeating it but PEOPLE has never, ever in the history of the SMA brand gone back to back with a non-American. EVER. Do they break the rule for Hugh Jackman? Sure, but they'd be more likely to break the rule for someone else, IF they'd want to break the rule in the first place.

Odds: 17 to 1