It was always a long-shot, my prediction that Hugh Jackman will win Best Actor for Jean Valjean in Les Miserables. If it were any other year, a non-DDL year, his chances would be a lot better. But, well, you know Daniel Day-Lewis. Still... I’m staying with my bet. And in the absence of DDL yesterday at the Nominees Luncheon, word is, applause for Hugh was the loudest of the day, second only to the applause for little Quvenzhane Wallis. Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter who made this observation was quick to note that it probably means nothing...

And yet, at this time of year, everything means something.

If Daniel Day-Lewis wins Best Actor on February 24, his third Best Actor win, he will have had more than Jack Nicholson. More Best ACTORS. Nicholson has three Oscars: two for Best Actor, one for Best Supporting. DDL winning for Lincoln would put him ahead of Jack. Does it matter? Of course it matters. Hollywood is one giant pissing contest. And Hugh Jackman isn't exactly unpopular. Hugh's people must think he has a chance too as they're still working him out there as much as they can; he's been a lot more visible than the frontrunner, charming everyone on The Tonight Show last night, having him present at all the guild shows, reminding voters just how likeable and, more importantly, deserving he is -- worthy of their selection.

No doubt, DDL is still the heavy favourite. But would you say it's a lock?

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