You ever watch Oz? JK Simmons played Vern Schillinger. It took me a long time not to see him as Vern anymore. And I don’t. Now I don’t. Now I either see him as Juno’s dad or Miles Teller’s mentor adversary in Whiplash. For which he will probably, most likely, win an Oscar. The New York Film Critics Circle just named him Best Supporting Actor today. And he deserves it. Simmons is the frontrunner in this race with a HUGE lead.

Boyhood is also a frontrunner, formally now, for Best Picture as New York has decided it’s the best picture of the year, director Richard Linklater the top director, and Patricia Arquette has secured her spot as the one to beat for Best Supporting Actress. That one was set up a long time ago, even though her screen time should probably be considered for a lead. From Medium to Academy Award winner?

For Best Actor, it was neither Keaton or Cumberbatch. Instead, New York went with Timothy Spall. That doesn’t change the fact that Keaton and Cumberbatch are in front though. It does however mean that those 4th and 5th spots for Best Actor, assuming Eddie Redmayne’s #3 position is secure, are still in play, open to Spall, David Oyelowo, Steve Carell, Jake Gyllenhaal, and maybe Bradley Cooper.

Meanwhile, Marion Cotillard over Julianne Moore? New York is calling it that way, recognising both her performances in Two Days, One Night and The Immigrant. I’m not sure it hurts Julianne at all. But Julianne and Reese are the only two locked in for Best Actress so far. Emily Blunt, Rosamund Pike, Amy Adams, Hilary Swank, Marion, and, ahem, Jennifer Aniston are possibilities for the other spots but… no one seems really passionate about any of them. Is this really a weak year for lead actresses?