Gary Oldman’s Oscar chances

Sarah Posted by Sarah at December 1, 2011 16:48:28 December 1, 2011 16:48:28

We started talking about Oscar odds yesterday during the liveblog, and I made the assertion that Gary Oldman would win Best Actor for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. LetΓÇÖs break down how I got there.

1) No one is a lock this year

By this time last year, it was clearly ΓÇ£Colin FirthΓÇÖs yearΓÇ¥. Everything was going his way and there wasnΓÇÖt a chance he was getting derailed. This year belongs to no one, so the field is much more open. Tinker Tailor hasnΓÇÖt even hit theaters yet so their publicity is largely focused on branding and raising public awareness. I expect theyΓÇÖll follow the same late-December program that True Grit did last year, so look for OldmanΓÇÖs name to ascend the lists by the end of the month.

2) The Clooney vs. Pitt problem

Right now, George Clooney holds the best odds for The Descendants, but Brad Pitt is pressing with Moneyball. My five nominees are Clooney, Pitt, Oldman, The Fassbender (Shame) and Jean Dujardin (The Artist). The Fassbender and Dujardin are both young and in movies no one in Nebraska will seeΓÇöthey wonΓÇÖt do anything for the ratings. And Clooney and Pitt both have the same circle of friends and allies. Like Lainey said yesterday, who does Steven Soderbergh choose? IΓÇÖm not sure he chooses either of them. I think a lot of voters will avoid choosing between the two most popular guys in school by voting for a third party, and the ones who are willing to take sides will be split down the middle between them. TheyΓÇÖll cancel each other out. Which leaves it open for Oldman.

3) A lack of ΓÇ£bigΓÇ¥ performances

Tropic ThunderΓÇÖs brilliant ΓÇ£never go full retardΓÇ¥ joke had a lot of truth in it. The Academy loves to award big, grandiose performances. However, this year there is no ΓÇ£bigΓÇ¥ performance. Pitt and Clooney give very Everyman performances and The Fassbender is being lauded for his contained performance as a sex addict. The closest thing to a big performance this year is Dujardin in The Artist, but really, heΓÇÖs more buoyant than big. OldmanΓÇÖs work in Tinker Tailor is not big, either, but Oldman is an actor whoΓÇÖs made a career out of larger than life characters, and in this movie heΓÇÖs playing against type in what he deemed a ΓÇ£sitting down roleΓÇ¥. Just for going against the grain and doing something he doesnΓÇÖt usually do, Oldman gets the edge.

So there you have it. Three steps to Gary Oldman winning his first Oscar.

(Lainey:  SarahΓÇÖs laid down her prediction, boldly! ItΓÇÖs only December 1! IΓÇÖm still not convinced about Oldman. HeΓÇÖs coming in at best 3rd right now across the board on all the charts. But the Clooney vs Pitt factor is certainly intriguing. Had a vision on the plane last night that Brad actually won, and what he would say. With Angelina in the front row and Jennifer Aniston and Justin Theroux sitting two rows back. Oldman for your heart but Pitt for Good Gossip?)

Attached - Gary Oldman at the New York premiere of Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy last night in New York.

Photos:
Andy Kropa/Getty

Tags: Gary Oldman
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