Or so the numbers people say.

Two weeks out from The Amazing Spider-Man’s opening, and the trades are reporting that it’s tracking for a $120+ million holiday opening—it’ll span the long July 4 weekend in the US—showing strong interest from men and boys and decent awareness from younger girls, but not so much the 25 and over female crowd. So three of the four quadrants then.

On the heels of the UK premiere, the first reviews have come in from across the pond, and they’re mostly favorable. Andrew Garfield is getting a lot of good notice for his turn as Peter Parker, and people seem to like Emma Stone as The Girlfriend, even if it sounds like she doesn’t have much to do (The Girlfriend rarely does in movies like this, unless it’s Be Rescued In The Nick Of Time or Die Artfully Right At The End). Overall, though, the jury seems split on the movie itself. Some are down with it, but the Telegraph critic called it the “superhero film for the Twilight generation”. Ouch?

Basically, it sounds like it’s decent if not extraordinary, which is consistent with the stuff shown in the trailers and marketing. Frankly, it looks like Sony may have dodged a bit of a bullet, given that they only made this movie in order to retain the Spider-Man rights. If they didn’t put out a new Spider-Man title, the rights would revert to Marvel, who would certainly not let go of the property again. It’s not like this is a passion project for Sony (as evinced by that lazy-ass tag line), so it’s pretty lucky they’ve ended up with something that won’t be a complete disaster.

My expectations remain so-so. The numbers guys say it’ll make money, and I do think there are enough Spider-Man fans who will see it just because—it shouldn’t have a problem making $100 million on opening—but I’m still not feeling the vibe from the average movie-goer. All the anticipation at this point is funneling toward The Dark Knight Rises (and hoooo-boy remind me to get to that within the next couple weeks). It’s not opening weekend I wonder about for Spider-Man, but the second week. How big of a hit will it take? The Avengers was propelled by repeat viewings and interest from the casual movie-goer. That’s what will fuel TDKR, too, the feeling that it’s a must-see. Somehow, I don’t think Spider-Man will be that compelling.


Attached - Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone in Madrid today.