As we’ve been seeing over the last few months, this is a wide-open award season. The Golden Globes may have been awarded last night but I don’t think the results there really established any clear frontrunners. In the Best Picture category, we always knew The Power of the Dog and Westside Story would be contenders. And the fact that they won Golden Globes will certainly have an impact on their Oscar nominations, but in terms of whether that predicts a win… we have a long way to go. I don’t think anyone, confidently, can say there’s any ONE film to beat at this stage in the race, and certainly not one determined by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. I spoke to a film critic this morning who thought that, considering how so much of Hollywood has shunned the Globes this year, winning a Globe might be something that’s considered a con instead of a pro, lol. Not sure I would go that far but, probably, it’s a draw – what happened last night was a non-event, and so at best and worst it has a non-event impact on everything else.
There is one category, however, where the Globes, even as a non-event, could align with the Oscars. Perhaps the most Globe result to come out of the Globes last night was Nicole Kidman’s win for Being the Ricardos as Lucille Ball. Nicole has been a favourite of the star-f-ckers at the HFPA forever so it’s really no surprise they chose her performance. But this is also the kind of performance that the Academy loves – she’s playing a legend, Lucille Ball is considered by many in the industry to be the Holy Grail of legends to play. So Nicole’s Oscar nomination is pretty much secured. But does this establish her as a frontrunner in the Best Actress category?
Something else to consider where the Globes are concerned – Rachel Zegler won for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy, and continues to gain momentum for one of the Best Actress Oscar nominations. If Rachel actually makes it into the final five… who gets left out?
At this point, Nicole and Kristen Stewart look like locks. Olivia Colman has been steadily gaining ground for her performance in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter and we already know how the Academy feels about her. That leaves two spots for four presumed candidates: Rachel Zegler, Penelope Cruz, Jessica Chastain, and Lady Gaga.
So it’s going to be really interesting how the Screen Actors Guild shakes up the race. The SAG nominations will be announced this Wednesday, January 12 and they’ve always been a better Oscar predictor than the Globes.
Here’s Kristen Stewart with Dylan Meyer out in Hollywood this weekend.