Dino crush box office

Following the record-breaking box office over Memorial Day weekend, July 4th delivered, too, with one of the biggest holiday box office weekends ever. Jurassic World Rebirth opened with $147 million over the five-day frame (Wednesday-Sunday), and $91.5 million for the traditional three-day weekend frame. Globally, however, it ate up another $171 million—aided by $41.5 million from China—making for a monster $318 million bow. 

Honestly, I won’t be surprised if these numbers go up a little when the actual reporting comes in later today, given how the box office kept revising upward throughout the weekend, beating initial expectations that placed Rebirth in the range of $100-120 million (extended) domestic opening and $260 million worldwide. And they didn’t beat those numbers by a little bit, Rebirth came in well over expectations. This despite receiving a very mediocre “B” CinemaScore, indicating audiences weren’t totally thrilled with the film. Translation: people were going to the movies this weekend regardless of what was opening, because word of mouth is mixed and yet Rebirth’s audience GREW over the weekend, which is the opposite of what you expect to happen when audiences aren’t enthusiastic. 

Rebirth’s titanosaur-sized box office also means that Scarlett Johansson is now the highest grossing actor of all time (unadjusted for inflation). She now outranks Mr. Hollywood himself, Tom Cruise, as well as her fellow MCU stars Samuel L. Jackson, Robert Downey, Jr., Chris Pratt, Chris Evans, Vin Diesel, Chris Hemsworth, and Bradley Cooper. The only other woman on the list is Zoe Saldaña. Everyone in the top ten highest grossing actor list is in the MCU except Tom Cruise. This probably doesn’t say anything good about the state of Hollywood. Speaking of, the box office for 2025 is now 14% ahead of 2024 at the same point in time, though also still lagging 25% behind 2019. So even though things are definitely better and audiences are willing to go to theaters, we still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. The question is whether or not this is the new normal and the audience is permanently shrunk.

Elsewhere, F1 crossed $100 million domestic, with $293 million worldwide. That’s not bad, but it’s not exactly Top Gun: Maverick numbers, and F1 is losing IMAX screens this week with the arrival of Superman. The profitability of this movie is debatable, though it is now Apple’s biggest theatrical release to date, and between respectable box office and respectable reviews, everyone can walk away happy. Another questionably profitable film is Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, which crossed $500 million worldwide. Like F1, its enormous price tag is a hindrance.

Because Jurassic World Rebirth overperformed like it did, there is now a question of whether or not this affects Superman. It’s tracking in the $95-135 million range, which means no one really knows how the film will do. Between recent evidence of superhero fatigue and the fact that audiences did not embrace the last Superman we got—at the movies, Tyler Hoechlin was great on TV—there is reason to be cautious. And now we have to wonder if the Paycheck Hypothesis is about to take effect.

The Paycheck Hypothesis is my half-baked hypothesis that most people are only willing to pay for one theatrical film experience in a given two-week paycheck period. Both Jurassic World Rebirth and Superman fall in the same paycheck period. That means most people will choose between the two films, not go see them both. Barbenheimer fried movie executives’ brains, though, and has them convinced they can repeat that phenomenon. And while yes, two movies can be popular at once, the Paycheck Hypothesis states that Superman will probably come in on the lower end of expectations, because everyone already spent their money on Jurassic World Rebirth (box office works out to over 10 million tickets sold). It then follows that the film that benefits from the Paycheck Hypothesis is Fantastic Four, which opens in a separate paycheck period. This is a great time to test the Paycheck Hypothesis! Does it apply to you? Let us know at The Squawk. (App link here)

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