The BAFTAs were on Sunday, and because of the topsy-turvy awards season we’re having, they happened while both SAG voting AND Oscar voting is underway.
The Brits came down with a case of pope fever, with Conclave taking home four trophies, including Best Film and Outstanding British Film. However, The Brutalist also clocked four wins, including Best Director for Brady Corbet, and Best Actor for Adrien Brody. Meanwhile, Anora and Emilia Pérez won two awards each, with Mikey Madison picking up a surprise win for Leading Actress over favorite Demi Moore. I thought Madison had a better shot at the Rising Star Award, but that went to British actor David Jonsson, star of Industry, Rye Lane, and Alien: Romulus. So, with Oscar voting ending on Tuesday, where do the races stand now?
Well, both Kieran Culkin and Zoë Saldaña continue their marches toward Oscar unabated, as they both won BAFTAs. The supporting actor/ess categories are locked in, and at this point, I don’t expect any deviation at the SAG Awards next weekend. The Best Actress race looks a little more complicated following Mikey Madison’s win, but I still consider Demi the favorite, though SAG will tell the tale. SAG voting closes on Friday, and the show is on Sunday night. If Demi wins the SAG, she remains the frontrunner going into the Oscars in a couple weeks. But if Mikey pulls out another win, then it’s a 50-50 shot for either leading lady.
Also, both Demi and Mikey are nominated for the Independent Spirit Awards, which are on Saturday ahead of the SAGs. However, the Indies have done away with gendered categories, and only have two acting awards, for leading and supporting performances, so Demi and Mikey are up against other Oscar nominees like Colman Domingo and Sebastian Stan, as well as June Squibb, Hunter Schafer, Ryan Destiny, Amy Adams, Keith Kupferer, and Justice Smith. Given the, er, spirit of the Indies, I won’t be surprised to see that trophy go to like, June Squibb or Sebastian Stan.
In the Best Actor category, Timothée Chalamet’s momentum remains a mirage, as Adrien Brody won again. Like Kieran and Zoë, he is well on his way to an Oscar, but if Timmy ever is going to become a real contender, it would be with a SAG win next weekend. Again, there is SO much riding on the SAG Awards because their voting period has stretched on so long. They’re voting through the Karla chaos—Karla Sofía Gascón was a no-show at the BAFTAs, though she was included in thanks by both Jacques Audiard and Zoë Saldaña—and now Mikey Madison’s win in London, and however many more screeners they’ve managed to squeeze in with the extended grace period.
Best Director is still competitive, too, even though Brady Corbet clocked this win over Sean Baker. Looking to the SAGs for which way the wind is blowing, if anything other than Anora takes Best Ensemble, I think Corbet remains a narrow favorite for the Oscar, but if Anora does win Best Ensemble, Sean Baker emerges as the frontrunner. Ditto for Best Picture, though I think Anora still has an edge there, despite Conclave’s multiple wins this weekend. When it comes to the Oscars, I’m expecting a split across the big categories. This is not a year with a consensus pick for a singular “best film”—which is an indicator of a good year for film overall—so I won’t be surprised if, say, Brady Corbet wins Best Director, Anora wins Best Picture, Conclave wins Best Editing and Adapted Screenplay, and The Substance wins Best Original Screenplay. That would be a solid reflection of some of the top films of 2024.
View the full list of BAFTA winners here.
