Fantastic Four gets the job done

Much like Superman before it, The Fantastic Four: First Steps had a fantastic opening weekend, clocking $118 million—which will probably revise upwards, just like Superman, when the actual tally is released later today. The international haul came in at $100 million, giving First Steps a $218 million launching pad.

To say Marvel needed a hit is not an exaggeration, they’ve had a down year—even though Thunderbolts* was good and should have done better business—and this is proof there is still some gas left in the superhero tank. Looking at First Steps and Superman, both of which are good, entertaining, crowd-pleasing flicks, but neither of which are likely to hit the coveted $1 billion at the box office, I think we can say that audiences are still willing to turn up for superhero movies, but they aren’t reliable billion-dollar earners any longer, and budgets should be planned accordingly. Not that they can’t hit a billion, Deadpool & Wolverine did just last year, but that it isn’t a given outcome any longer.

Superman, which currently stands at $502 million worldwide, is going to start slowing now that it has direct competition and has to share IMAX and other premium large format screens. Both films are winners for their studios—and both studios needed the win, though for different reasons—but the fact that both films exist so close together IS going to take a little shine off them both. Without Superman still appealing to families and casual moviegoers, First Steps probably would tack on an additional $20 million, at least, to its opening weekend. But Superman has a bigger problem than its competitor: it just is not catching on overseas. 

That’s a little bit of a headscratcher, because superheroes usually travel well, but like Twisters, this film seems to have a uniquely American appeal that is working against it abroad (the rest of the world doesn’t deal with tornadoes like the US does, thus the international disinterest in Twisters). But in its third week, Superman is still flat overseas, which makes its domestic performance even more critical—and even more reason why these two films should not have challenged each other so directly. 

In a reverse Superman, F1 is doing very well overseas, banking $509 million worldwide, almost 68% of which is coming from international markets. Much like Formula 1 itself, the appeal is greater outside the US than in, but this is now Apple’s biggest box office hit by a huge margin. Also holding up—despite thoroughly mediocre word-of-mouth—is Jurassic World Rebirth, which now stands at $718 million and seems likely to push $800 million, if not crack it outright. I guess the lesson is that even when people are mid on dinosaurs, they’ll still show up for them. As for what movie HAS cracked a billion this summer—Lilo & Stitch. The live-action remakes are far from over.

For now, though, Marvel can take a bit of a breath and focus on building on the fresh momentum supplied by Fantastic Four (and to a lesser extent by Thunderbolts*, which is playing well enough on streaming to bring some casual viewers back into the fold). Next year brings only two movies—if they’re sane and don’t push their luck by oversaturating the market (again)—Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Avengers: Doomsday. Both should be big winners, but they’re shooting Doomsday without a finished script, a gambit that only pays off sometimes. But Fantastic Four did what it had to do and delivered a much-needed win and some much-needed breathing room for Marvel.