Timmy v Wagner

Since the Golden Globes split dramatic and musical/comedy categories, we get two winners for the lead acting awards, which means Timothée Chalamet continued notching wins for Best Actor, becoming the youngest person to win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at age 30. But he wasn’t the only winner of the night as Wagner Moura, the star of Brazilian film The Secret Agent, won Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama.

We’ve been talking about Wagner Moura for weeks, as he has racked up some wins amongst critical groups, and I specifically said Moura might “ruin [Timmy’s] day” and that he was “steadily moving from dark horse contender to probable front runner”. I said that all the way back in December! So Moura has been on the radar for a while, and now the momentum is coalescing around him, at just the right moment for Oscar nominations.

Here's the formula for Wagner Moura to pull off an Oscar upset and win Best Actor over presumed favorite Timothée Chalamet.

One, the Academy is going to be weird about Timmy because he’s young. They love nominating him but are slow to reward young men for Best Actor. Leonardo DiCaprio was nominated four times before winning on his fifth try, at age 41. Brad Pitt also won on his fifth try, at age 56. Ryan Gosling has yet to win an Oscar but has three nominations under his belt at age 45. The question for Timmy is whether or not he can defy the Academy’s weird thing about young guys.

Two, Leonardo DiCaprio is going to draw some votes for sure. But I have a suspicion there isn’t going to be a ton of momentum to actually hand him a second Oscar at this point. His Battle role is not “serious”, it’s basically a comedy performance, and the Academy will acknowledge but not necessarily reward comedic performances.

Three, I think Jesse Plemons is going to siphon off some votes for his performance in Bugonia. He’s the best part of the film, and I fully support Jesse Plemons getting an Oscar nomination, though in my mind, it will be retroactive for Game Night (comedy bias is real!). The Oscars use ranked choice voting, Wagner Moura doesn’t necessarily have to garner the most #1 votes, in fact, it can be more advantageous to be the most consistent #2 pick. Given the competition this year and the number of biases in play, he might pull it off.

Plus, The Secret Agent is hard to resist, given its themes of anti-authoritarianism and the generational trauma it leaves behind. Moura also gave a solid speech, emphasizing that values can be passed down through the generations, too, which speaks to our own moment in the US, in which we have to decide what values we hold dearly enough to fight for. The Secret Agent is a good film, but Moura’s performance is the highlight for sure, and here he is, not unlike Teyana Taylor, demonstrating what a gracious and inspiring winner he is for the moment we’re in.

To be clear, I think Timmy is still the one to beat. I’m just saying, we’ve been mentioning Wagner Moura and Best Actor consistently for a couple of months now, and here we’re seeing momentum going to both Timmy and Wagner. And when I consider the Academy and how they vote, Timmy’s age remains his biggest hurdle. And that is, really, his only hurdle. Much is made of the “Kardashian Kurse”, but that is about Kardashian exes, and Timmy isn’t an ex (yet). He’s still going strong with Kylie Jenner, who attended the Golden Globes with him (though they did not walk the red carpet together).

Timmy’s career is flourishing, he’s starring in hit movie after hit movie, he’s about to get his third Oscar nomination by age 30, and he’s winning consistently for Marty Supreme. What’s more, he and Kylie seemed awfully popular in the room last night. During the crowd cutaways to and from commercial breaks, people were consistently chatting them up, including Jennifer Lawrence, an avowed Kardashian fan, and Leonardi DiCaprio. The Kurse has not struck him yet.

He is not, however, beating the Samson allegations that his power is contained in his hair, because ever since Timmy shaved his head he’s aged like milk. I cannot with this dirtbag aesthetic the young men embrace, it repulses me. Timmy, grow back your beautiful, beautiful hair. Although I can’t help but think he cut his luscious locks specifically so that he would look older and worse, to overcome that age bias with the Academy. Anything to win!