This is the year of rich A-listers spending their own dime on passion projects—some might say “vanity projects”—and in Kevin Costner’s case, it isn’t working out as hoped. His awkwardly titled Western epic Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 is bombing at the box office, and yesterday it was announced that Chapter 2, originally slated for release on August 16, is being pulled from the release calendar.
The intent is to open Chapter 1 on premium VOD on July 16 and let Chapter 1 build an audience—the audience that didn’t go to the theaters for it—and then figure out how to release Chapter 2 after they have some digital data to assess. My guess is that if Chapter 1 does well on PVOD, Chapter 2 will get a day-and-date theatrical/PVOD release either later this year or in early 2025. If it fails to perform on PVOD, if that audience continues not showing up, Chapter 2 will go straight to streaming on Max (Warner Bros. Discovery is handling distribution, though Costner paid for marketing out of pocket).
Horizon is the project Costner famously self-financed using a mix of his own money—$38 million by mortgaging some of his Santa Barbara property, which he could lose if Horizon fails to recoup the investment—and rounding up some “mystery investors”, plus pre-selling international rights, which is a tried-and-true method of fundraising for films. It’s not exactly clear how much each installment of Horizon is costing, but it’s believed Chapter 1 and 2 combined is around $100 million. I wish someone would just ask him to explain these films finances, because it would put the box office into better perspective.
Right now Chapter 1 is sitting at $25 million, which is pretty much where it will end once it hits PVOD. Some films keep going theatrically even after they’re available at home—The Fall Guy is a recent example—but for the most part, box office falls off a cliff once digital rental takes over. But that $25 million looks a little better if the Chapter 1 budget is $50 million, worse if it’s closer to $100 million. It’s sort of like the situation with The Bikeriders, the box office is graded on a curve based on budgets, and these adult-oriented dramas basically have to be made for sub-$20 million in order for their box office to look respectable.
Probably Chapter 1 will do okay on PVOD, though it will likely run into the same complaints theatrical audiences made—nothing happens. This film skipped screening in my market, but I finally caught up with it over July 4, and while it’s full of good actors and looks very handsome on screen, it’s all setup, no resolution. You just keep meeting new characters and there’s no ending. In this way, Horizon Chapter 1 is like Cats. It’s incredibly frustrating as a viewer, which is undoubtedly where its B- CinemaScore comes from. Even if you WANT to like the film, it’s impossible with how incomplete it is.
There’s also the built-in problem of how many people will wait for it “be complete” before investing the time and money in watching Horizon. Titling films anything like “part 1” always hurts, because it makes audiences want to wait for the series to finish before getting involved. Films are supposed to have a beginning, middle, and end. If you know there’s no end, why bother? So it could help Chapter 2 to have Chapter 1 available to watch at home, before going out to see Chapter 2 in theaters (at some point), because at least then you’re getting a “complete” experience. Unless, of course, you know there’s a Chapter 3 and 4 coming. Also, there is the very real issue of there being a limited theatrical audience for Westerns. Releasing one Western in four years might tempt people to give it a chance, but four in TWO years? It’s oversaturation, plain and simple.
I don’t care that Kevin Costner might lose money on his passion project, or if he loses his waterfront property in Santa Barbara. At least he spent his money on making movies that employ hundreds of people and not on, like, crypto that’s sucking the Amazon dry. But I am deeply fascinated by the decisions being made here, some of which seem wildly impractical—four Westerns in two years—and some of which show some forward-thinking flexibility—mixing PVOD and theatrical for optimal results. I’m not sure I’ll bother watching more Horizon, but I will definitely read an oral history about it someday.
Horizon Chapter 3 is currently in production.