Hello, it is I, the box office doom fairy, back once again to talk about The State Of Things! Which right now is Not Terrible, thanks to the double whammy of family-friendly fare playing during the US Thanksgiving holiday weekend—and perhaps a desire to escape the house and unpleasant post-election conversations!
The domestic box office experienced a super-charged long weekend, with Wicked earning $80 million in its second three-day weekend, and pulling in a whopping $117.5 million for the five-day holiday frame. And opening new for the weekend was Moana 2, which earned $135.5 million for its three-day opener, and a gargantuan $221 million for the five-day window, which is a new Thanksgiving record. Moana and the witches teamed up save the holiday to the tune of $422 million for total weekend box office.
Adding to the long holiday weekend’s pot was the R-rated Gladiator II, which pulled $44 million over five days. That’s not terrible for an ostensibly adult-only film, but it also suggests “Glicked” was wishful thinking. People shut out of Wicked went to see Moana 2 and vice versa. Gladiator II is not appealing to the Wicked crowd in the same way Oppenheimer appealed to the Barbie crowd. (Theory: Oppenheimer and Barbie both felt like events driven in no small part by directors respected for their distinctive visions, which attracted a cross-over audience who just wanted to experience Cinema!. The Wicked audience just wants to experience Wicked.)
Moana 2’s massive haul is bolstered by Moana’s status as Disney’s most-streamed movie ever, which means there is an entire generation of children devoted to this character, making Moana the new Elsa/Belle/ Cinderella/Snow White. Every generation has their Disney princess, Generation Alpha has chosen Moana. (This is also why Disney is rushing out a live-action Moana without waiting for a nostalgia bubble to build.) The even better news for Disney is that Moana 2 is playing well overseas, too, racking up $165 million internationally. In just five days, the film has already topped $386 million, and it has a clear runway until December 20, when Sonic the Hedgehog 3 opens to offer family-friendly competition.
Speaking of playing overseas, though, keep an eye on Wicked’'s international earnings. So far, they’ve not cracked $100 million overseas. The film still has to open in China, but the relationship between the Chinese and US box office isn’t what it was in the 2010s, and studios can no longer count on China to deliver the kind of box office that makes for billion-dollar bottom lines. I would expect Wicked to play more like Moana 2, with a more equitable split between domestic and international box office, signaling a true global hit, but right now, Wicked looks more like Twisters, which never even cracked 30% of their audience from overseas. Things might pick up for Wicked internationally, but I’m more than a little surprised to see it’s getting off to a slow start outside the US.
Looking ahead to the Christmas box office, it’s a little bit of a different picture. The big family releases are Mufasa and Sonic the Hedgehog 3. At present, Sonic, which has turned into a hit franchise after the whole teeth debacle, is tracking ahead of Mufasa. Since Christmas falls on a Wednesday this year, both films open the weekend before, on December 20. Sonic is projecting a $55 million opening weekend, which frankly, feels low. I’m calling $60-70 million, maybe even upwards of $80 million if the reviews are good. Don’t count out the impact of Keanu Reeves voicing Shadow, the villain fans are super hyped to see on screen.
Mufasa, meanwhile, is tracking for a $50 million opening weekend, which again, feels low, though it doesn’t seem likely Mufasa will come close to The Lion King’s $191 million opening weekend in 2019. Mufasa will likely open less than half that, because 1) this is a prequel that 2) won’t have the beloved music of the original film and 3) people seem pretty over the Disney live-action remakes in general (bad news for Snow White). $50 million seems conservative, $80 million seems a little wishful, so let’s call it $65-75 million.
The big “grownup” release is Kraven, which is where the picture starts falling apart. It’s tracking for a $25 million opening, and I don’t expect it will have much legs through the holiday to save it. There’s not a lot of excitement, and it’s lost the specialness of being an R-rated comic book movie, coming on the heels of Deadpool & Wolverine and Joker: Folie à Deux. Adults looking for a movie to watch will have other fare to tempt them, like Babygirl, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown. If anything, Timmy-Bob might get a boost from grownups going to the movies but tuning out superhero nonsense (Bob Dylan probably has the widest appeal among grownups of all the Oscar movies opening on Christmas day. Don’t yell at me about Nicole Kidman, Babygirl is an explicit sex movie, that will turn some people off, no pun intended). There is also an animated Lord of the Rings movie, but I’m not sure anyone knows it exists.
We have obtained record-breaking holiday box office, but the year overall still lags behind 2023, and we have not come close to recovering to pre-pandemic levels. And while it’s entirely possible the December wide releases end up getting positive reviews/word of mouth that fuels good Christmas box office, it’s unlikely we will see something like this $422 million holiday haul again. It’s also possible we could go the complete opposite direction and see depressed Christmas box office, if audiences don’t buy into this crop of films, and/or if the weather gets super sh-tty and keeps people home, always a risk in winter. So the situation is pretty much what it’s been all year—some movies are doing very well, but overall, there is no consistency and movie-going itself still hasn’t returned to the status of a regular activity. It’s looking more and more like movie-going is an occasional treat, not a staple entertainment.
