The narratives taking shape after the Critics Choice Awards

Welcome back from the liminal space, everything is a nightmare, let’s talk about awards shows! The 31st annual Critics Choice Awards were held last night in Los Angeles, the first heavyweight awards show on the trophy trail. The big winners were Sinners and One Battle After Another, with The Pitt, The Studio, and Adolescence dominating on the TV side. (Full disclosure: I am a voting member of CCA.)

Digging into What It All Means comes with a grain of salt because of the timing of this year’s nomination calendar. The CCAs were last night, the Golden Globes are this Sunday, and then Oscar nominations open the day after, on January 12. In thinking about Oscar odds, it’s not so much about the CCAs on their own, it’s the one-two punch of the CCAs and the Golden Globes. That will set up so much momentum going into the Oscar nomination period. But we can definitely see some narratives taking shape after last night as the CCAs set the tone for the rest of awards season.

To begin with, it looks like we’re headed for a Sinners/One Battle After Another head-to-head matchup that is bound to make so many people mad, as they were the top film winners and Battle won Best Picture. Personally, I favor Sinners over Battle nearly across the board—it’s resonated longer and more deeply with me than Battle—but we’re seeing a split take shape in which Ryan Coogler wins for his original screenplay, while Paul Thomas Anderson gets the directing trophy. Again, I would go for Coogler as a director for the technical accomplishment behind Sinners, but PTA is much admired and famously does not have a directing Oscar, he’s also 16 years older than Coogler, so an “it’s his time” narrative works for him, especially since Battle is the most accessible film he’s made in 20 years. Like of course PTA will finally win for his most basic film. That’s what the Oscars do.

Battle won three awards, but Sinners banked four, for original screenplay, score, Miles Caton won for Best Young Performer, and it won the revamped Best Casting and Ensemble award, which went to casting director Francine Maisler. While Battle might have an edge for directing and Best Picture, there is clearly a lot of love for Sinners. I am not writing it off by any means. I am just preparing for a scenario in which both films score a ton of nominations, and they both win some, but for Battle to get the “bigger” prizes for directing and Best Picture. This is the Oscar eventuality I predict, unless one of the international films manages to shift momentum.

On the acting front, Timothée Chalamet won his first CCA for Marty Supreme. If he bags the Golden Globe next weekend, I will firmly move him into the top spot for Best Actor, though I still think Leonardo DiCaprio or Wagner Moura might ruin his day. I’ll reassess this after the Globes.

Related, a fun thought experiment is to imagine Club Chalamet’s response to Timmy calling Kylie Jenner his “partner of three years” and thanking her from the stage.

Also building momentum is Jessie Buckley, who won Best Actress for Hamnet, and Amy Madigan’s Best Supporting Actress campaign is really taking off. She’s just so charming and seems excited but a little baffled by the reception of her character, Gladys, and I think people are responding to her energy as much as her performance at this point.

Never forget, Amy Madigan has been around forever, she’s worked with everyone, when it comes to the Oscars, she will have a lot of support and goodwill in that room from people who have a good impression of her as a hardworking, journeywoman actress. “It’s her time” works for her, too, and then you add how fun and cool she is on top of that, if she wins the Golden Globe next weekend…she might be unstoppable. Some people were baffled how Sam Rockwell won an Oscar for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, but it was this exact formula. This formula WORKS, especially in the supporting categories where the Academy likes to reward character actors.

What I can’t decide is how it works for Jacob Elordi over in Best Supporting Actor. It’s definitely not his time, he’s a young guy at the beginning of his career, and this is the first big film role that is showing people he’s more than just A Face. He won for Frankenstein, which I am 100% okay with, but I don’t know how this translates to the Oscars yet. He’s nominated at the Globes, too, so we really will have to see what happens next week. If he wins again, that momentum boost will mean a lot going into Oscar nominations.

But I am not ready to write off Benicio Del Toro or Adam Sandler, whose Hollywood friends are doing a huge “he’s a genuinely good guy and you should take him seriously” push on his behalf. Lainey addressed this in today’s open. The overlap between the CCA and the Academy is effectively nil, and it’s not any better with the Globes. So while momentum matters, just like with Amy Madigan, never forget Academy voters have personal experience with these people. Adam Sandler is a known quantity; Jacob Elordi is the new kid on the block. We just have to determine how much that will matter, given that a lot of people don’t take Sandler seriously.

On the TV side, there is obviously less immediate correlation because the Emmys eligibility window is different and I think the only show that carries over is Pluribus, and its first season will be eligible for the 2026 Emmy cycle. But Tramell Tillman continues his supporting actor dominance, The Studio and The Pitt reigned supreme—more on that later—Adolescence went out on a high note for limited series. Speaking of Pluribus, Rhea Seehorn won Best Actress in a Drama Series, which might actually be a preview of what is to come for the rest of the year. I wish she’d worn a better dress!

You can view the full list of winners here.