Happy Sinners Day!

The 2025 Oscar nominations were announced earlier today, and it’s Sinners leading the way with a record-breaking SIXTEEN nominations. More than Titanic, more than La La Land, more than actual classic All About Eve.

Among the nominations for Sinners are nods for Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku, Delroy Lindo, and Ryan Coogler with his first nods for writing and directing, and casting director Francine Maisler in the inaugural Best Casting category.

Sinners is obviously the headline, because it’s a genuinely good movie with incredible craft, it’s also a movie people went to see, which these days is no small thing. But One Battle After Another, which has been going head-to-head with Sinners all awards season so far, earned thirteen nominations, which means it’s still a top contender, too. Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value earned nine a piece.

Because awards season so far has been spreading the love around across a coterie of films, rather than concentrating behind one clear frontrunner, there’s nothing really surprising among the nominations on Oscar morning. Though Bugonia racked up four nominations, including Emma Stone’s fifth acting nomination (never count out Emma Stone because the Academy loves her) and second producing nomination (that’s what Best Picture is), but no nomination for Jesse Plemons.

This is surprising because Jesse Plemons is a brilliant actor, in general, but specifically HE is the best part of Bugonia. Jesse Plemons, however, doesn’t gladhand and only reluctantly participates in the trophy trail. He is known, in fact, to declare “this is stupid” at events at which he is a nominee and bail early. Which is cool! Jesse Plemons is objectively cool! But the Oscars are a popularity contest, not a strict meritocracy, so he’s not, like, endearing himself to many of his peers by disdaining these rituals. Once Jesse Plemons’ performance in Game Night shall go unrecognized.

The closest thing to a surprise among nominations is that The Secret Agent is nominated for Best Picture. Wagner Moura is also nominated for Best Actor, but Lainey and I have both said that it was a real possibility since December. The Best Picture nomination is positive momentum coming off the Golden Globes, which culminates in four total nominations for the film. It’s also nominated for Best International Feature and Best Casting (Gabriel Domingues).

Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident, meanwhile, netted two noms, one for Panahi for original screenplay, and one for Best International Feature. Keep an eye on both of these films, and Wagner Moura in particular. They’re going to be pretty irresistible to the Academy, cinematically and thematically, and Moura, who has worked in Hollywood for a while, has a lot of friends in that room.

And then there is the most embarrassing inclusion, F1, which is included in the Best Picture ranks. I do not begrudge Joseph Kosinski’s film its nominations for Best Sound, Best Editing, and Best Visual Effects. Like Top Gun: Maverick before it, F1 is a technical whiz. Unlike Maverick, though, F1 is not a good movie, so nominating it for Best Picture shows a real lack of imagination among the Academy.

As for where we stand on Oscar morning, I’m stewing on it. I’m not really surprised by these nominations—I mean, F1 for Best Picture is laughable, but always count on the Academy to do something like that—and the top contenders going in remain the top contenders now that nominations are out. Sinners obviously has a lot of admirers, but now we’re into the nitty gritty political part of the process.

I’m still not convinced that Team Sinners will ultimately overcome how f-cking weird the Hollywood machine is about this movie. But I do have more hope today than I had yesterday, so that’s something. And while I think Jessie Buckley remains the favorite for Best Actress, I’m also not counting out Rose Byrne who, like Wagner Moura, has worked with everyone and has a lot of friends in that room. Also, I bet she does a bit with Conan, who is hosting the Oscars again and co-stars with Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.

But right now, I think it’s still Sinners vs. One Battle with Hamnet waiting in the wings, I think this might be the year Paul Thomas Anderson finally gets his directing trophy, Wagner Moura might surprise a lot of people on Oscar night, Jessie Buckley is probably going to win her first Oscar. But there’s always an Oscar night surprise. What do you think it will be this year?

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View the full list of nominees here.