Sinners: A stunning second weekend

Ryan Coogler’s Sinners just passed its second weekend at the box office. Opening weekend is a big deal because the economics of Hollywood have been gutted to the point that a film lives or dies by that frame, there is no grace given if a film opens “soft”. Sinners, notably, did not open soft, it opened in line with expectations ($40-50 million, at $48 million, it hit the high end of expectations). But it’s Sinners’ SECOND weekend that has everyone talking—because the film HELD UP.

In box office terms, we talk about “drops” and “holds” to mean how a film performs after opening weekend. In the current atmosphere, a film dropping 40-50% in its second week is not only normal, it is seen as good; 40-50% is a standard, acceptable, even expected drop for a popular film. For instance, A Minecraft Movie, an undisputed hit, experienced a 52% drop in its second weekend, a “good hold” for what is now a newly minted blockbuster.

Sinners, though. Sinners rocked that box office sh-t so hard we got a new record out of it. In its second weekend, Sinners earned $45 million (estimated as of Sunday evening), which means it declined only 6% between its first and second weekends, a record for a wide release. In only two weeks, it has topped $161 million worldwide—an undisputed hit.

This comes after a week of highly suspect box office reporting that included lots of caveats on Sinners’ opening weekend. At a time when we should be celebrating every theatrical win, publications were quick to point out that with a $90 million price tag, Sinners had a “long way to go” to profitability. Theatrical box office is still clawing its way out of the COVID hole, we are literally having to retrain audiences to go back to the movie theater lest the entire film industry collapse (there is no economic replacement for theatrical box office to drive the industry and support thousands of careers at every level, we NEED movie theaters to fuel the whole industry, streaming won’t cut it), and the trades and even the New York Times are out here belaboring the f-cking point that the movie is kind of expensive, rather than celebrating the fact that people turned up for an original film. 

Sinners isn’t nearly as expensive a superhero movie, though. Will they qualify and asterisk Thunderbolts* when they report on its opening weekend box office? Probably not! Gee, what could the difference be? Besides the obvious that largely white entertainment reporters are still, in the year of our lady 2025, slightly mystified when Black entertainment succeeds in the mainstream, it might also have to do with Ryan Coogler’s unique deal with Warner Bros. Pictures to release the film. I talked about that in our Substack (The Squawk) mailbag last week, you can read it here, but in short: in 25 years the rights to Sinners revert in full to Coogler, meaning he owns his own work. 

Everyone flipped their sh-t over a Black man getting that kind of deal, but no one cared when Quentin Tarantino got rights reversion for Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. That was seen as his due, because he’s Quentin Tarantino. Ryan Coogler getting a similar deal, though, that’s a threat to Hollywood. What if other people ask for a deal like that? What if women and gays and other Black people expect to own their own work! What will we do! Carry the f-ck on, it’s not the first time and it won’t be the last time someone gets a favorable rights clause worked into their contract. Anyway, word of mouth is working, people are going to see an original film in theaters—including Tom Cruise.

This has not been a great box office year so far, and Sinners is juicing the box office right on the brink of summer movie season, when we need positive momentum to carry us into this critical period for the industry. And even with Thunderbolts* opening this weekend (tracking for a respectable $60-80 million opening), I expect Sinners to continue holding up—it will have good legs. Word of mouth will keep spreading, now aided by headlines about its record-breaking second weekend. More people will get curious about it, which means more people will go see it. A rising tide lifts all boats, and Sinners is a huge win for everyone.