Teyana Taylor takes over

Over the last couple of weeks, the momentum for Best Supporting Actress has been breaking for Amy Madigan for her performance in Weapons. Last night, however, Teyana Taylor pulled back some momentum for herself, winning Best Supporting Actress at the Golden Globes and giving a beautiful, sincere speech in which she was clearly surprised and moved to win.

This is what Academy voters love to see!

Something to keep in mind about the Best Supporting Actress award: this category is friendly to Black women in a way other Oscar categories are not. In the last 19 years, a Black woman has won it nine times. That’s almost half! If Teyana wins, it will be an even 50% over 20 years. This is the one category Academy voters seem to like rewarding Black women the most, draw your own conclusions about what it says about them that they clearly prefer when Black women are not main characters.

Fashion-wise, Teyana looked incredible. A diamond-encrusted whale tail on an haute couture gown worn by a woman as beautiful as Teyana Taylor is the only whale tail I will ever find acceptable. For the record, Teyana is in custom Schiaparelli, truly one of the most stunning looks of the night.

It began with Teyana but certainly didn’t stop there, One Battle After Another had a huge night. The film won four Golden Globes, including writing and directing for Paul Thomas Anderson, and Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, a category which also included fellow Best Picture contender Marty Supreme. As nominations begin, I think Battle is our presumptive Oscar frontrunner, and Paul Thomas Anderson is probably, finally, getting his Best Director Oscar. I just don’t quite want to rule out Jafar Panahi and It Was Just An Accident, or The Secret Agent, which could have more momentum behind it than we’ve assumed so far. Although given the SAG nominations, the Oscars might be more “local” this year than they have been in recent years.

The SAG Awards will be a replay of the Golden Globes, with Amy Madigan and Teyana Taylor both nominated. It will, however, be a much better bellwether for the Oscars, as SAG and the actors’ branch of the Academy have significant overlap.

Keep an eye on the SAGs, because they’re on March 1, and final Oscar voting closes on March 5. That means there will be four days for the johnny-come-latelys of the Academy to get their votes in, so whatever happens at SAG will be super fresh in their minds. Given the membership overlap, it will also point which direction they’re favoring for this category. A week ago, Best Supporting Actress wasn’t looking very competitive, but one night can change everything. We have a race!