Intro for June 18, 2024

Dear Gossips,

The summer box office see-saw continues to do its thing, going from the lowest low of the dismal Memorial Day weekend, now to the highest high of Inside Out 2 opening with $154 million domestic ($295 million globally). 

It’s a “return to form” for Pixar, but only if you forget that three of its last five films were used as cannon fodder for Disney+. Pixar, not unlike Marvel, has been in something of a wilderness period, but there have been signs of life even during their “off” years, such as Elemental turning into a slow-burn box office hit last year, ultimately earning $496 million. I suppose it’s a return to form for Pixar in the sense that critics AND audiences like Inside Out 2.

We’re up, we’re down, what does it all mean? Given the summer’s bad box office start is now suddenly propped up by Inside Out 2 delivering, many are now proclaiming that things aren’t that bad, actually, and movies are not dead. Well, no, of course they’re not dead. People will always go to the movies, the issue is what “going to the movies” looks like now in relation to then. It’s also not about the highs and lows of blockbusters, it’s about the middle, about finding a balance that means the industry can withstand films like The Fall Guy and Furiosa underperforming without panic. 

The conversation about movies and moviegoing and the film industry can’t just be about blockbuster box office, it has to be about who is going to the movies, and how often. It was a problem before the pandemic—people go to the movies less now than they used to. And even with blockbusters like Barbie, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of the Water, and Spider-Man: No Way Home delivering mega-box office, signs are that even less people are going to the movies even less than before the pandemic. 

Yes, people will turn up for a Pixar movie, and Deadpool & Wolverine is predicted to have a monster $200 million opening weekend—if it does, watch everyone backtrack on their “superhero fatigue” takes—but will people show up for stuff like The Bikeriders? How about Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga? “Chapter One” of that series is due next week and is tracking for a “worrisome” $12 million opening weekend (which might not mean anything as it looks like a dad movie that might pull an older audience over several weeks, not to mention that “Chapter Two” is coming in August and this is a bad release plan, but we can talk about that more when we see how Horizon actually does). 

Other movies coming out in the next few weeks include nonagenarian revenge caper Thelma, and two coming of age tales in Janet Planet and Didi. THESE are the movies we need to do well. They don’t have to make a $100 million—although it would be AWESOME if Thelma turned into a Beekeeper/Accountant style hit—but if films like this can reliably churn out box office in the $30-70 million range, well, then we have a more stable middle ground that can hold things together whenever a random blockbuster underperforms.

It's not about the sky falling or the jackpot hitting, it’s about establishing a healthy moviegoing habit in which people see more than 3 movies a year in theaters. And that has been a problem since long before COVID, and it’s worse now because the dream of never-ending streaming money has died, which means we HAVE to have a healthy theatrical business to keep Hollywood’s gears turning. If you hate movies, I guess you don’t care about that, but most people do like movies, they just don’t like going to the movies. And that has always been the real problem. Box office is just a measuring stick, and what we’re measuring is whether or not Hollywood can convince people to go to the movies. The next couple of weeks are an interesting test. A Quiet Place: Day One is the only blockbuster, surrounded by a flotilla of mid-to-low budget films aimed at grownups. Once upon a time, that made good business for everyone. These days? It’s a struggle.

Live long and gossip,

Sarah