The State of the Supporting Races

As Sarah just mentioned in her posts about the BAFTAs, while One Battle After Another and Jessie Buckley are the clearly heavyweight favourites in the best picture and best actress races, the three other acting categories are much more unpredictable at this point where Oscar is concerned. Robert Aramayo’s BAFTA win over Timmy Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Michael B Jordan doesn’t tell us much about who the Academy will break for, which makes next week’s SAG Awards that much more interesting. And then in the supporting categories, the leads keep changing positions.

Sean Penn did not attend the BAFTAs last night but he was the BAFTA choice for supporting actor, considered by some to be a surprise. Up to this point, Stellan Skarsgård and Jacob Elordi had taken the two most high-profile awards for this category. Stellan isn’t nominated at the SAGs though, but we already know that the Oscar Academy is high on Sentimental Value, so while the SAGs will tell us something, it might not tell us all the things – especially if Benicio del Toro or Miles Caton win, because if it’s either one of them does, it really is wide open…

Just as it is in the best supporting actress race because Wunmi Mosaku was also somewhat of a surprise last night at BAFTA. Amy Madigan had the early lead in this category, but Teyana Taylor has been charging. Still, Wunmi’s SAG and Oscar nominations gave us some insight into how well-received her performance in Sinners has been with industry voters. And last night she added to that momentum. As Variety noted this morning, “The BAFTAs rarely make the Oscars simpler. This year, they’ve made them electric.” And that’s a good thing for those of us who want the Oscars to be suspenseful, for the possibility of anyone winning. This is now true in three of the four acting categories. Like, that Variety article I just linked to is opening the door to the possibility that it could be Ethan Hawke who takes out Timmy and Leo, not just Wagner Moura.

For now, let us delight in the sight of Wunmi, a queen in royal blue, in an exquisite dress by Ahluwalia.

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But her acceptance speech is even more gorgeous. Speeches are important during award season, especially when races are tight, so important that some people work on them with writers and comedians (Brad Pitt). Wunmi’s words were personal, though, and heartfelt and if Academy members were watching, it would have been another reason to vote for her.