Game of Thrones’ final season begins next month. Soon, after nearly a decade, we will know who wins the Iron Throne. But before that, let’s speculate wildly about the odds of the remaining great houses of Westeros and which of them will end up ruling the Seven Kingdoms. And I do mean GREAT houses—we’re talking about the Big Names here, not your Tarlys and your Tullys. Sure, Edmure Tully is in the wind and, thanks to Arya, can reclaim Riverrun, but let’s be real, he is not in the running for the Iron Throne. Houses Stark, Targaryen, Lannister, Greyjoy, and the Night King are the ones left on the table. So let’s start this week with House Greyjoy, least of all great houses, and their odds of winning the Iron Throne. We’ll profile another House next week, and we’ll be rolling out even more GoT content as we approach the premiere on April 14. 

Oh I’m not talking about Theon and Yara. There isn’t a chance in hell those two could get it together long enough to pull off the upset. Theon will be lucky to die a meaningful death in service of the Starks, thus redeeming his sh-theel past, and Yara is lucky anyone remembers her name. No, I’m talking about Euron Greyjoy, current head of the house. Euron is like a coked-out glam pirate landed in Westeros, and while his odds of a surprise victory aren’t great, Euron is in bed with Cersei Lannister—metaphorically and he wishes literally—which does give him a toehold on the ladder. 

Despite his promise to f-ck off back to the Iron Islands and wait out the snow zombie threat, in the trailer for season eight, we see Greyjoy ships carrying the Golden Company to Westeros. That was Cersei’s big play, hiring an army of mercenaries to fight for her. So, we can assume Euron isn’t just waiting out the Long Night, but that he is still working in partnership with Cersei. His plan is pretty clear, he’s trying to f-ck his way to the throne, via either Cersei or Daenerys, Euron isn’t picky. Will it work? Well not with Dany, she’s got that whole incest situation to work out with Jon Snow. But maybe it could with Cersei.

Euron’s odds are low, like “winning the lottery” low. It COULD happen, but it probably won’t. Still, the one in one hundred chance Euron has is if Cersei gets desperate enough to marry him. She doesn’t have Jaime to rely on anymore, so there is a convenient hole at her side, and it’s not like Westeros is ripe with options. Cersei’s choices for a spouse are basically Euron and Robin Arryn. And now that I say it, it actually seems more likely that Cersei would elect to marry Robin Arryn, whom she could easily manipulate and eventually murder, than she would Euron, who would probably Demand Stuff and Want Things—and be a lot harder to kill. So Euron’s prospects for winning the Iron Throne are incredibly, historically low. The only path forward for him is alongside Cersei, and wouldn’t it be just like her to command the Golden Company to kill Euron the moment he arrives back in Westeros?

Euron Greyjoy’s final odds: 376-1