Previously, we’ve examined the odds of House Greyjoy and House Lannister ending up on the Iron Throne. This week, we’re going to see what it would take for the Night King to prevail and become the King of All Dead Westeros. Here’s the thing about the Night King’s chances—it’s not impossible. It’s barely even implausible. Game of Thrones is a story in which noble heroes die all the time, so it’s not that far-fetched to think the last noble heroes standing might lose. With his unstoppable army that only ever grows larger, undead dragon, and general terrifying demeanor, the Night King is a top contender for the Iron Throne. Not that he seems to want the throne, particularly. Mostly he just seems to want to destroy every living thing in Westeros. And that’s possible, too!

There is a lot going for the Night King, chiefly that he is magic fighting mostly mere humans. He has one dragon to their two, but his dragon breathes blue fire, and everyone knows blue fire is hottest, so the dragons cancel each other out. He also has the ability to raise soldiers from the dead, so unless the Westerosi get super good at quick-burning their fallen, the Night King is claiming a fair portion of the slain for his own ranks. (Really he is pants-sh-ttingly scary when you think about it.) The Night King is an unstoppable force that has yet to meet an immovable object. And don’t forget, the last time he and Jon Snow confronted each other, it ended with Jon Snow fleeing while the Night King issued an all-time great “Come at me bro”.

The cons for the Night King are few, but the biggest one is his ultimate doom—this is the “Song of Ice and Fire”, not the “Song of Monsters and Evil”. This is not his story. And while Game of Thrones is dark, I don’t think it’s “everyone dies and the inevitable force of darkness wins” dark. One of the human heroes is going to win. BUT. The Night King is going to take out like, 90% of the remaining characters before that moment. There is a reason I’m #TeamDragon and it’s because I refuse to get attached to any human character because they are almost all going to die. Jaime? Dead for sure. Arya? Maybe! Brienne? Probably! Tormund? Totally toast. Even the dragons and remaining dire wolves are probably doomed. The vast majority of the characters we care about on this show are about to die in the final season. The Night King is going to take as much of Westeros down with him as possible. It will not be pretty. There will be a lot of ugly-crying reaction videos.

The sheer destruction he will cause gives the Night King higher odds than most. He will get closer to the throne than the likes of Euron Greyjoy for sure, and that’s probably not even the Night King’s goal (WHAT DOES HE WANT). For that reason, and his whole undead army deal, the Night King comes in high on the winner-takes-all probability chart. He might not win, but he is going to make the ultimate victor pay for that throne with the blood of pretty much everyone they’ve ever met. 

The Night King’s Final Odds: 20-1.