Watching the Oscars With a Loudmouth

You know that person who shows up at the Super Bowl party and despite not ever watching football, they have opinions on the refs and the first downs and the plays and they share those opinions while eating an embarrassing amount of spinach dip? That’s me with the Oscars this year. (That will also be me at a Super Bowl party this year.)

I’ve seen an embarrassingly limited number of films and say I’ll catch up before the show, but I won’t. Kind of like multiple members of the Academy.

So I thought… since I’m sitting movies out this year… why not insert my uninformed opinion into the mix? Is Sarah’s head going to pop off? TBD.

I’m only doing the splashy categories with famous people because I’m too dumb to know about editors and short films etc., even on a good year.

Actor in a Leading Role
The Oscars love a biopic and his campaign has been pretty solid – not too precious but very visible without overexposure. My heart tell me it’s Timmy Chalamet. Buuuuutttttt… if not for the AI-accent skirmish, Adrien Brody. And I actually don’t’know how much voters will care. OK now I’m undecided (aka completely useless). And it’s kind of wild that Adrien will be at the Oscars with Georgina Chapman, ex-wife of Harvey Weinstein.

Actor in a Supporting Role

In a parallel universe, it would be Edward Norton but he has kind of had a reputation of being an ass, even though he seems to play much nicer now. I’m giving this one to Kieran Culkin, a feel-good story of “see, we don’t f-ck up child stars THAT badly” for Hollywood. Jeremy Strong will win an Oscar but not in this brother-versus-brother battle. Can I do a second pick? Of course I can, there’s no rules here: Guy Pearce, who to me has the same kind of character actor caché as a Sam Rockwell. 

Actress in a Leading Role
Well, we know who’s NOT winning. It’s Demi Moore this year all the way, with or without all the controversy from her fellow nominee. She will also be best dressed.

Actress in a Supporting Role
As I said yesterday, according to Variety Ariana Grande is surging so why not? Although I would like to see it go to Isabella Rossellini because I think her speech would be great. A nepo baby of greatness!

Music (original song)

Again, I know what film is NOT going to win any awards (Emilia Pérez). Elton John has won two Oscars and I think familiarity will work in his favour here.

Director

Brady Corbet, because The Brutalist is an Oscar film through and through. 

Writing (Best Adapted Screenplay)

Again, we know which film can be crossed off the list right now. That leaves Sing Sing, Conclave, A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys – a very strong category. I think it will be Nickel Boys. 

Writing (Original Screenplay)
I know “original” doesn't mean “creative,” but I do think there is some reward here for a big swing and also a little more leeway with genre because we know the Oscars are super tight asses and rarely acknowledge horror/dark comedy/psychological thriller. This one goes to The Substance. 

Best Picture
This is the BIGGIE and I was going to be chaotic and say Wicked but I think it being a two-part release will work against it in this round, because voters might think “well, I’ll catch it next year.” It is a rare critical/commercial success but so was Barbie. I think this year it will be a sombre classic and a pairing with Best Director for The Brutalist. 

Should we check back after and see how poorly we did? It’s my grade 10 math report card all over again.