The BAFTAs are as expected

Given the ongoing wildfire disaster in Los Angeles, awards season is in upheaval. I’ll say it again, this is not the most important thing, except for the way in which it affects all the people whose jobs revolve around the entertainment industry. With so many events being cancelled, any number of businesses from caterers to drivers to florists and more are being impacted. But, as we march on toward the Oscars, there are still some flagship events happening, such as the BAFTAs, set for February 16, which announced their nominees this morning.

Conclave leads the way with twelve nominations, followed closely by Emilia Pérez with eleven. The Brutalist scored nine nominations, followed by Wicked, Anora, and Dune: Part Two with seven each. A Complete Unknown banked six, as did Irish rap comedy Kneecap, which is only surprising to Americans who don’t keep up with Irish cinema. On the “snub” front, Wicked did not get a Best Film nomination, and Denzel Washington, Nicole Kidman, and Angelina Jolie all missed nominations, too.

While the BAFTAs have a not insignificant membership overlap with the Academy, their nominations don’t always align with Academy interests. Wicked, for instance, will benefit from the Oscars’ expanded Best Picture field, and I’m not counting out Denzel or Nicole yet, either. Angelina seems to be losing momentum, though, likely hobbled by Maria’s overall lukewarm reception. In such a competitive year, the films have to be good, and Maria didn’t stand out. The Leading Actress nominations include favorites like Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, and Karla Sofía Gascón, but the BAFTAs made room for hometown favorites Marianne Jean-Baptiste—I am now convinced she’s getting an Oscar nomination—and Saoirse Ronan. 

On the Leading Actor side, they included Hugh Grant for Heretic, and I’m glad at least SOMEONE is recognizing Grant in his Weird Little Guy era. Speaking of hometown favorites, Warwick Davis will receive the BAFTA Fellowship, basically their lifetime achievement award. I just hope they don’t cut his speech from the telecast, as the Golden Globes did to Viola Davis and Ted Danson.

Also back in the game is Sebastian Stan, nominated for Leading Actor after missing a SAG nom. I do not think he is a lock for an Oscar nomination, he is very much on the bubble, but he’s not out of this thing yet. Also from The Apprentice, Jeremy Strong was nominated for Supporting Actor—I do think he’s a lock for an Oscar nod—and casting directors Stephanie Gorin and Carmen Cuba were nominated for the film, too. The other Roy brother, Kieran Culkin, probably remains the favorite in the Supporting Actor category but it was great to see that Clarence Maclin’s performance in Sing Sing was recognized here. 

A great surprise is The Substance’s Coralie Fargeat, nominated for Original Screenplay AND Director, now let’s see if the Academy will recognize a woman making body horror about being a woman. The Substance was also nominated for Sound, another great inclusion for that film. And Love Lies Bleeding was nominated for Outstanding British Film (it’s from British director Rose Glass), which is super fun to see, as that film has largely been left out of awards season.

Really, though, beyond the few hometown inclusions to be expected at the BAFTAs, these nominations fall in line with expectations halfway through awards season. The Best Actress race remains very competitive and for sure someone will be “snubbed” on Oscar morning, because there can only be five nominees. One thing to keep in mind about awards season now is how the cancellation of so many “for your consideration” events, the Q&As, the cocktail receptions, the gladhanding events—like the BAFTA Tea Party, which was cancelled last weekend—will determine nominations and voting going forward. We’re not getting the little shifts in momentum that come from someone having a good night out on the town. 

Sure, people have a little bit more time to watch more movies with the extended deadlines, but at this point, what decides so many nominations is the impact individuals have on the trophy trail, and that has been cut off at the knees. Again, not the most important thing, but in terms of the Oscars, it means momentum fairly well solidified around the Golden Globes, the last big event to happen before the fires. Something to keep in mind as we look ahead to Oscar morning, which is set for January 23. For now.

See the full list of BAFTA nominees here.