As Lainey mentioned in her intro, the in-person announcement of the SAG Award nominations was cancelled due to the wildfires in Los Angeles. The nominations were instead announced by press release, and as Lainey predicted, Angelina Jolie was, indeed, left off the list of SAG nominees. Even more surprising than that—so was Nicole Kidman.
I’m not calling these omissions snubs, though. It’s far, far too competitive a year for reductive “snub” thinking. There are only five nominees, there are easily eight solid contenders in the lead actress category at every award show, no one’s nomination is guaranteed or should be taken for granted. But still, it is surprising that Kidman, a favorite among her peers, was omitted from the SAG Awards.
But you know who the actors did go for? PAMELA ANDERSON! She has been present all awards season since the fall festivals when The Last Showgirl debuted, but she hasn’t been much of a factor among nominees until now. And just like that, the Oscar race looks very different as Oscar nominations open today. Anderson’s peers are taking her seriously. Could this be enough to propel her to an Oscar nomination? It would certainly be a major feel-good story for the Academy Awards, if Pamela Anderson finally gets serious recognition as an actor.
As for Angelina, well, Maria isn’t a stand-out film on its own. She is the best thing about the film, for sure, but again in such a competitive year, you really need all cylinders firing on your behalf, and being the best thing in a mediocre movie isn’t a boost. And like Lainey says, Brad got Hollywood in the divorce, she might not have enough friends among her peers to propel her to an Academy Award nomination.
I’m not counting Nicole Kidman out just yet, though. She is long-listed for the BAFTA Awards, so she could still bounce back with that nomination. And again, it’s such a competitive year, we also can’t count out Marianne Jean-Baptiste, star of Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, who is 1) phenomenal in that film, and 2) the type of actor who could get a “surprise” Oscar nomination. (It wouldn’t really be a surprise, though, Jean-Baptiste has always been part of this conversation, but watch people call it a surprise if she is nominated for the Oscar.) Leave room also for Fernanda Torres who just took the Golden Globe.
The leading actor nominations, on the other hand, are a very likely group. This could easily be the Oscar lineup, too: Adrien Brody, Timothee Chalamet, Colman Domingo, Daniel Craig, Ralph Fiennes. You’ll note no Sebastian Stan—he is slipping off the bubble. The leading actor race is more competitive than it’s been in recent years, but still not nearly as competitive as the actress race. I will not be shocked if this group of SAG nominees translates exactly to the Oscar nominees (who will be announced next Friday).
On the supporting side of things, there are some pleasant surprises. First, Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown—what did I say?! I SAID she could be a late awards season surprise! And Jonathan Bailey for Wicked, I don’t think anyone clocked that, but it’s a nice inclusion. He’s great, one of the most genuinely enjoyable and engaging elements in Wicked. (Semi-related, on the TV side Bridgerton got some love, with a drama actress nomination for Nicola Coughlan, and a drama ensemble nomination for the cast.) Another late-breaking inclusion is Danielle Deadwyler for The Piano Lesson—I wonder if the To Leslie debacle prompted more people to take a look at Deadwyler’s performance this year—and Yura Borisov from Anora. Also, Jamie Lee Curtis, while great in The Last Showgirl, hasn’t really registered this awards season, but her inclusion here is interesting. That could be a legit Oscar morning surprise.
Less surprising among the supporting actors are the nominations for frontrunners Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin, as well as trophy trail regulars Jeremy Strong, Ariana Grande, and Edward Norton. For all that there are a number of surprising nominations among the supporting categories, I still expect Saldaña and Culkin to be our Oscar frontrunners.
On the TV side of things, there is a lot of Shōgun and Slow Horses in the drama categories, The Bear in comedy—when will they stop submitting this series as a comedy?—and Baby Reindeer and The Penguin in the limited series categories. There are some fun inclusions, too, with Kristen Bell and Adam Brody both being nominated for Nobody Wants This, and Ted Danson being nominated for A Man Inside, plus a nomination for Jeff Bridges for The Old Man, a show nobody watches.
Other than that, though, the TV noms are largely as expected. We’ll probably see Shōgun dominance in the dramatic category, though comedy feels wide open since it seems like people are souring on rewarding The Bear as a comedy. It’ll be interesting to see if the actors, as a group, don’t go for The Bear when it comes to winners, but reward an actual comedy, instead. I feel like people are really hung up on Jeremy Allen White’s performance—which is good but not comedic!—but for the first time since it premiered, The Bear feels vulnerable, not a shoo-in for the win.
Overall, the SAG nominations are mostly as expected, with a few nice surprises, and yet more evidence that the Best Actress race is a cutthroat competition to the very end. After the Golden Globes, a lot of people commented that Wicked is this year’s Barbie, piling up nominations but no wins, but it leads the SAG pack with five nominations. Maybe they’ll get shut out again, but I’m not ready to write off Wicked just yet, though even if it is shutout this year, the same might not hold true next year. This could be a Lord of the Rings situation, where the final film gets all the awards. We have to hold space for Wicked.
See the complete list of nominations here.
Attached – Kieran Culkin and Daniel Craig at the NBR Awards in New York last night.
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