Usually, I format my Oscar predictions as favorite/upset/dark horse, but this year, even the most competitive categories are down to two competitors, not a wide-open field of possibility. Also, brace yourself for the Oppen-Oscars, as Oppenheimer is probably going to dominate the whole night. So this year, I decided to go with “who will win” versus “who should win”. I’m basing my “will win” predictions on a combination of precedent, Vegas odds, and talking to actual Academy voters, while “should win” are my personal favorites among the nominees. There’s not a lot of overlap! If you’re betting in an Oscar pool, definitely go with the “will win” picks and not my personal vendetta.
Best Picture
Oppenheimer is unstoppable, but in the long run, The Zone of Interest is absolutely haunting, and Oppenheimer will mostly be remembered for the memes.
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Everyone Else:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Past Lives
Poor Things
Best Director
I’m fine with Christopher Nolan winning this because he set a very hard task for himself and he fully executed on his sprawling vision, but Jonathan Glazer accomplished something just as impressive with a fraction of the budget (and much less fuss and fanfare).
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Arguably Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Everyone Else:
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Best Actress
This is going to be close, but I am giving the edge to Lily Gladstone based on recent precedent, as in, just last year. Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh went head-to-head all awards season. Cate won the BAFTA, but Michelle won the SAG, then went on to win the Oscar. Similarly, after Austin Butler took the early awards for Elvis, including the BAFTA, Brendan Fraser won the SAG, then went on to win the Oscar. This year, Emma took the BAFTA, but Lily got the SAG. History (last year) says she’ll get the Oscar, too.
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Who Should Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Everyone Else:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actor
Between the two front runners Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti, I would be happy with either winning. Colman Domingo will, hopefully, be back here next year for Sing Sing, which is a much stronger film overall than Rustin.
Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Everyone Else:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Supporting Actress
One of the most surefire picks for your Oscar pool.
Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Everyone Else:
America Ferrera, Barbie
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Best Supporting Actor
The other surefire pick for your Oscar pool, even if Ryan Gosling’s job was harder and his performance more impressive.
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Everyone Else:
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall is about the acting, the editing, and the dog. It’s getting a pass in this category because Americans are so gobsmacked by the French justice system.
Who Will Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
Who Should Win: Celine Song, Past Lives
Everyone Else:
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Samy Burch (story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik), May December
Best Adapted Screenplay
Barbie shouldn’t even be in this category, and I won’t be surprised if the rules change going forward to clarify that adapted screenplays need preexisting text, not just ideas. Like really, how is basing a movie on the idea of a doll any different than a film like Maestro being based on the idea of a person? The inconsistency is exposed. That said, I’m not mad at Cord Jefferson being the favorite in this category—he just won the USC Scripter Award, which is a strong indicator he’s about to win an Oscar—as he made sense of Percival Everett’s novel, Erasure, which was long held to be unadaptable.
Who Will Win: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Who Should Win: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Everyone Else:
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Best Editing
The #1 bellwether category for Best Picture. If Jennifer Lame wins, Oppenheimer will, too. But Jennifer and Kevin Tent split the ACE Eddie Awards for editors, with Jennifer winning for drama and Kevin for comedy. This category will determine the Oppenheimer/Holdovers split.
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall
Everyone Else:
Kevin Tent, The Holdovers
Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Poor Things
Best Cinematography
I genuinely think Rodrigo Prieto deserves this, not even accounting for the fact that the very next film he shot was Barbie, for which he developed the now famous “TechniBarbie” color palette and lighting guide. His technical work on Killers is just as impressive, using a mix of 35mm, digital, and old school Technicolor processes to realize the final look of the film. Hoyte van Hoytema is a very good cinematographer, but he’s going to win because Oppenheimer has the momentum of a runaway train.
Who Will Win: Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
Everyone Else:
Edward Lachman, El Conde
Matthew Libatique, Maestro
Robbie Ryan, Poor Things
Best Production Design
This is a very close category between Poor Things and Barbie, but I’m giving Poor Things the edge because it’s an aesthetic movie with a serious theme…even though it’s the same damn theme as Barbie, just with less jokes. Or rather, it has “funny weird” jokes, not “funny ha-ha” jokes. I will be glad to be wrong, but it feels like Poor Things is designed to give people a more serious option for a female-centric aesthetic movie about the female experience, and I think there is actual resistance to Barbie from a not insignificant portion of the Academy. In hindsight, I think it’s amazing it got as many nominations as it did (I think that’s largely down to actors and craft artisans appreciating it the most).
Who Will Win: Poor Things
Who Should Win: Barbie
Everyone Else:
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Best Costume Design
Ditto—see above.
Who Will Win: Poor Things
Who Should Win: Barbie
Everyone Else:
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The fact that Barbie didn’t even make the short list for this category! In hindsight, that was our red flag that the Academy isn’t as solidly behind Barbie as the public. Anyway, Bradley Cooper’s Nose will win.
Who Will Win: Maestro
Who Should Win: Society of the Snow
Everyone Else:
Golda
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Sound
This is a category where “most” usually wins over “best”—typically, the loudest movie wins. But The Zone of Interest uses sound in such a narratively critical way, it practically makes the movie the horror that it is. In this case, the best and most artistic usage of the technology actually is going to win.
Who Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Everyone Else:
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
Best Visual Effects
Godzilla Minus One has been running an EXCELLENT campaign, completely overtaking the Hollywood entries on this list. They’ve been emphasizing the combination of technology, innovative filmmaking processes, and low-cost/high-impact techniques that resulted in such a good-looking film made for only $15 million. They’ve also been taking their 3D Godzilla model everywhere with them, and he even talks in their behind the scenes exemplar video. It’s very cute.
But remember—anytime you find yourself asking how something that looks so good cost so little, the answer is always “exploitation”. The Godzilla Minus One team—which includes director Takashi Yamazaki—has not been complaining, but the Japanese VFX industry is not any better about fair wages and labor practices than the US industry, or anyone else’s. It’s a global problem.
Who Will Win: Godzilla Minus One
Who Should Win: Godzilla Minus One
Everyone Else:
The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Best Original Score
I don’t even know how this category shifted away from the late Robbie Robertson, whose Killers of the Flower Moon score is a marvel. Ludwig Göransson is a good composer, but Robbie’s score is objectively better, come at me.
Who Will Win: Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
Everyone Else:
Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Laura Karpman, American Fiction
Best Original Song
This is Barbie’s best shot at winning and might well be the film’s only Oscar. Bananas.
Who Will Win: "What Was I Made For?" Barbie
Who Should Win: "I'm Just Ken," Barbie
Everyone Else:
"The Fire Inside," Flamin’ Hot
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)," Killers of the Flower Moon
Best International Feature
I strongly believe everyone should watch The Zone of Interest, but having seen it once, I never, EVER, want to see it again.
Who Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Everyone Else:
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers' Lounge
Best Animated Feature
This category is the dead heat we’re not talking about. It’s a total coin flip between Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron. I truly have no idea how this will break, but I’m going with Spider-Verse simply because Hiyao Miyazaki has won an Oscar (for Spirited Away) and been given an Honorary Academy Award (in 2014), so voters might consider him appropriately honored already.
Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Who Should Win: The Boy and the Heron
Everyone Else:
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Best Documentary Feature
Someday we’ll talk about the absolutely bonkers internal politics of the Academy’s documentary branch. This is a year where a lot of people feel the best docs didn’t even get nominated, but Four Daughters is quite good, though the Ukraine doc will be impossible to resist as the war in Ukraine continues to rage.
Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Who Should Win: Four Daughters
Everyone Else:
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
To Kill a Tiger
Best Live-Action Short
The shorts! Who knows! But Henry Sugar is 1) by a famous director, 2) stars famous people, and 3) is easily accessible on Netflix.
Who Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who Should Win: Red, White and Blue
Everyone Else:
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Best Animated Short
A lot of people abstain from these categories because they don’t watch the nominees! Makes for a highly unpredictable voting pool!
Who Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Who Should Win: Pachyderme
Everyone Else:
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Best Documentary Short
I actually watched all of the shorts! They’re really very good and these categories remain a good indicator of up-and-coming talent!
This category, especially, is going to be close with two high-profile entrants in The Last Repair Shop and The ABCs of Book Banning, both of which detail challenges faced by America’s public school system. I’m giving the edge to the film that deals with the more immediately hot button issue of banning books with 2SLGBTQIA+ themes in Florida schools, but The Last Repair Shop, about the people who maintain the musical instruments used in LA public schools, was much more effective.
Who Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Who Should Win: The Last Repair Shop
Everyone Else:
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó
What are your predictions? Let's Squawk about it! (app link here)
