I can honestly say going into Oscar weekend I have never felt LESS confident in my picks. SO many categories are completely up in the air, and while that makes watching the Oscars more fun, it definitely makes predicting the Oscars a nightmare. Entering my Oscar pools this year felt like setting my money on fire. Here are my best guesses as to who will win on Oscar night, with an emphasis on GUESS. As always, the choices are dictated by who I think WILL win, which is not the same thing as deserving it or liking it the most. Although I do really like Everything Everywhere All At Once, I won’t be mad if it has a big night, and it will be fun to say that the butt plug fight movie won Oscars.
Best Picture
There is still a part of me that thinks this is how Tom Cruise wins his Oscar, as the producer of one of the most popular, well received, and successful films of his career, one featuring bonkers real aerial stunts and arguably his most beloved character of all time. But EEAAO ran the table at all the major guilds—Producers, Actors, Directors, and Writers—as well as picking up an ACE Eddie Award for Best Edited Feature Film – Comedy. Winning two of these guild awards is a strong indicator of a Best Picture favorite, but to win all of them? Every film that has done that has gone on to win Best Picture
Favorite: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse: Top Gun: Maverick
The Rest:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Best Director
If the Academy breaks for Spielberg in this category, expect a Best Director/Picture split with EEAAO.
Favorite: Daniels – EEAAO
Upset: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Dark Horse: Todd Field – Tár
The Rest:
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
This is a dead heat between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, so I’m secreting a Michelle Yeoh win into the universe.
Favorite: Michelle Yeoh – EEAAO
Upset: Cate Blanchett – Tár
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
The Rest:
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Best Actor
This is another close one, but I feel like Elvis, for all its flaws, is an easier movie to like than The Whale, which is, Brendan Fraser aside, terrible. Also, I’m now nearly a year into people randomly gushing about how wonderful Austin Butler is, that momentum has to go somewhere.
Favorite: Austin Butler – Elvis
Upset: Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Dark Horse: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
The Rest:
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
Best Supporting Actress
Another super close one, Angela Bassett and Jamie Lee Curtis both have “overdue for this” vibes, and as much as I want to say Bassett has it, that SAG broke for Curtis…that’s the biggest voting bloc in the Academy announcing their favorite. But there is a growing feeling that Angela Bassett and Jamie Lee Curtis are going to split the vote, thus opening the door for Kerry Condon.
Favorite: Jamie Lee Curtis – EEAAO
Upset: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dark Horse: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
The Rest:
Hong Chau – The Whale
Stephanie Hsu – EEAAO
Best Supporting Actor
Safest pick of the night.
Favorite: Ke Huy Quan – EEAAO
Upset: No
Dark Horse: There isn’t one
The Rest:
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Screenplay
The Writers Guild awarded EEAAO, but Banshees wasn’t eligible for their award, and Banshees has dominated the rest of awards season.
Favorite: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Upset: Daniels – EEAAO
Dark Horse: Todd Field – Tár
The Rest:
Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Best Adapted Screenplay
This is another tight race, this time between Women Talking and All Quiet on the Western Front. Sarah Polley and Women Talking won at the WGA awards, but All Quiet wasn’t eligible. There’s a chance voters might see rewarding All Quiet as a way to single out the director, Edward Berger, who co-wrote the script, too, but I’m still giving the edge to Polley.
Favorite: Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Upset: Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse: Rian Johnson – Glass Onion
The Rest:
Kazuo Ishiguro – Living
Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Peter Craig and Justin Marks – Top Gun: Maverick
Best Editing
Another impossible to call dead heat, but I can’t shake the sheer scale of what Eddie Hamilton had to do for Maverick. And since that film didn’t get a cinematography nomination—Claudio Miranda robbed!—this is the best way to acknowledge the technical craft of Maverick. Especially since there isn’t a stunt Oscar.
Favorite: Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick
Upset: Paul Rogers – EEAAO
Dark Horse: Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis
The Rest:
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – The Banshees of Inisherin
Monika Willi – Tár
Best Cinematography
Mandy Walker became the first woman to win the big prize at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, but this still feels like a win for All Quiet.
Favorite: James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front
Upset: Mandy Walker – Elvis
Dark Horse: Florian Hoffmeister – Tár
The Rest:
Darius Khondji – Bardo
Roger Deakins – Empire of Light
Best Sound
The best chance Maverick has to win all night.
Favorite: Top Gun: Maverick
Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse: Elvis
The Rest:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Best Original Score
The Babylon score is really good, but All Quiet is probably good for about half the below the line awards.
Favorite: Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front
Upset: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
Dark Horse: Son Lux – EEAAO
The Rest:
Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin
John Williams – The Fabelmans
Best Original Song
There is only one choice! (But don’t count out Rihanna). Also, Lady Gaga will not be performing “Hold My Hand” because she’s too busy filming Joker: Folie à Deux. We’re getting a Joker sequel but at what cost?
Favorite: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
Upset: “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dark Horse: “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
The Rest:
“Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman
“This Is a Life” – EEAAO
Best Production Design
Elvis is probably good for the other half of the below the line awards.
Favorite: Elvis
Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse: Babylon
The Rest:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Fabelmans
Best Costume Design
This is a battle of ICONS. This category is chock full of absolute legends, duking it OUT. Throw a dart, everyone deserves this award, it’s a genuine shame they can’t all win, and I bet the tally in this category ends up CLOSE.
Favorite: Babylon
Upset: Elvis
Dark Horse: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Rest:
EEAAO
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Batman is nominated entirely for Colin Farrell’s unrecognizable makeover as The Penguin. Speaking of, the television spin-off is filming now.
Favorite: Elvis
Upset: The Whale
Dark Horse: The Batman
The Rest:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Visual Effects
The second safest bet of the night.
Favorite: Avatar: The Way of Water
Upset: Top Gun: Maverick
Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front
The Rest:
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best International Feature Film
I cried my eyes out in EO. It was a bad year for little donkeys in film.
Favorite: All Quiet on the Western Front
Upset: Argentina, 1985
Dark Horse: EO
The Rest:
Close
The Quiet Girl
Best Animated Feature Film
GDT and Scott Gustafson turned a fairy tale into an anti-fascist insta-classic. No arguments. Also, Puss in Boots is LEGIT, the character design for Death is OUTRAGEOUS. There should be a special award just for the coolest animated character of the year.
Favorite: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Upset: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Dark Horse: Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
The Rest:
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Best Documentary Feature Film
2022 was a great year for documentaries, and this should be any combination of All The Breathes, Fire of Love, or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, but it’s going to be Navalny, as a way to signal support for Ukraine.
Favorite: Navalny
Upset: Fire of Love
Dark Horse: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
The Rest:
All That Breathes
A House Made of Splinters
Best Documentary Short Film
The shorts! Honestly, the categories that can make or break your Oscar pool, especially in a topsy-turvy year.
Favorite: Stranger at the Gate
Upset: The Elephant Whisperers
Dark Horse: How Do You Measure a Year?
The Rest:
Haulout
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Best Animated Short Film
And yes, I have actually watched all of these.
Favorite: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Upset: My Year of Dicks
Dark Horse: Ice Merchants
The Rest:
The Flying Sailor
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Best Live Action Short Film
The problem is, the voters don’t watch all of them, so you never how many are actually voting in these categories, which makes prognosticating nearly impossible.
Favorite: Le Pupille
Upset: An Irish Goodbye
Dark Horse: The Red Suitcase
The Rest:
Ivalu
Night Ride
