I can honestly say going into Oscar weekend I have never felt LESS confident in my picks. SO many categories are completely up in the air, and while that makes watching the Oscars more fun, it definitely makes predicting the Oscars a nightmare. Entering my Oscar pools this year felt like setting my money on fire. Here are my best guesses as to who will win on Oscar night, with an emphasis on GUESS. As always, the choices are dictated by who I think WILL win, which is not the same thing as deserving it or liking it the most. Although I do really like Everything Everywhere All At Once, I won’t be mad if it has a big night, and it will be fun to say that the butt plug fight movie won Oscars. 


Best Picture

There is still a part of me that thinks this is how Tom Cruise wins his Oscar, as the producer of one of the most popular, well received, and successful films of his career, one featuring bonkers real aerial stunts and arguably his most beloved character of all time. But EEAAO ran the table at all the major guilds—Producers, Actors, Directors, and Writers—as well as picking up an ACE Eddie Award for Best Edited Feature Film – Comedy. Winning two of these guild awards is a strong indicator of a Best Picture favorite, but to win all of them? Every film that has done that has gone on to win Best Picture

Favorite: Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front

Dark Horse: Top Gun: Maverick

The Rest:

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin


The Fabelmans


Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Best Director

If the Academy breaks for Spielberg in this category, expect a Best Director/Picture split with EEAAO.

Favorite: Daniels – EEAAO

Upset: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Dark Horse: Todd Field – Tár 

The Rest:

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

This is a dead heat between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, so I’m secreting a Michelle Yeoh win into the universe.

Favorite: Michelle Yeoh – EEAAO

Upset: Cate Blanchett – Tár

Dark Horse: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

The Rest:

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Best Actor

This is another close one, but I feel like Elvis, for all its flaws, is an easier movie to like than The Whale, which is, Brendan Fraser aside, terrible. Also, I’m now nearly a year into people randomly gushing about how wonderful Austin Butler is, that momentum has to go somewhere. 

Favorite: Austin Butler – Elvis

Upset: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Dark Horse: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

The Rest:

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Bill Nighy – Living


Best Supporting Actress

Another super close one, Angela Bassett and Jamie Lee Curtis both have “overdue for this” vibes, and as much as I want to say Bassett has it, that SAG broke for Curtis…that’s the biggest voting bloc in the Academy announcing their favorite. But there is a growing feeling that Angela Bassett and Jamie Lee Curtis are going to split the vote, thus opening the door for Kerry Condon.

Favorite: Jamie Lee Curtis – EEAAO 

Upset: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Dark Horse: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

The Rest:

Hong Chau – The Whale

Stephanie Hsu – EEAAO 

Best Supporting Actor

Safest pick of the night.

Favorite: Ke Huy Quan – EEAAO

Upset: No

Dark Horse: There isn’t one

The Rest:

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Screenplay

The Writers Guild awarded EEAAO, but Banshees wasn’t eligible for their award, and Banshees has dominated the rest of awards season.

Favorite: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Upset: Daniels – EEAAO 

Dark Horse: Todd Field – Tár 

The Rest:

Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans

Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Best Adapted Screenplay

This is another tight race, this time between Women Talking and All Quiet on the Western Front. Sarah Polley and Women Talking won at the WGA awards, but All Quiet wasn’t eligible. There’s a chance voters might see rewarding All Quiet as a way to single out the director, Edward Berger, who co-wrote the script, too, but I’m still giving the edge to Polley.

Favorite: Sarah Polley – Women Talking

Upset: Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front

Dark Horse: Rian Johnson – Glass Onion

The Rest:

Kazuo Ishiguro – Living

Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Peter Craig and Justin Marks – Top Gun: Maverick


Best Editing

Another impossible to call dead heat, but I can’t shake the sheer scale of what Eddie Hamilton had to do for Maverick. And since that film didn’t get a cinematography nomination—Claudio Miranda robbed!—this is the best way to acknowledge the technical craft of Maverick. Especially since there isn’t a stunt Oscar.

Favorite: Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick

Upset: Paul Rogers – EEAAO 

Dark Horse: Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis 

The Rest:

Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – The Banshees of Inisherin

Monika Willi – Tár

Best Cinematography

Mandy Walker became the first woman to win the big prize at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, but this still feels like a win for All Quiet.

Favorite: James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front

Upset: Mandy Walker – Elvis 

Dark Horse: Florian Hoffmeister – Tár 

The Rest:

Darius Khondji – Bardo 

Roger Deakins – Empire of Light

Best Sound

The best chance Maverick has to win all night.

Favorite: Top Gun: Maverick

Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front

Dark Horse: Elvis

The Rest:

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Best Original Score

The Babylon score is really good, but All Quiet is probably good for about half the below the line awards.

Favorite: Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front

Upset: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon 

Dark Horse: Son Lux – EEAAO 

The Rest:

Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin

John Williams – The Fabelmans

Best Original Song

There is only one choice! (But don’t count out Rihanna). Also, Lady Gaga will not be performing “Hold My Hand” because she’s too busy filming Joker: Folie à Deux. We’re getting a Joker sequel but at what cost?

Favorite: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR

Upset: “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Dark Horse: “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick

The Rest:

“Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman

“This Is a Life” – EEAAO

Best Production Design

Elvis is probably good for the other half of the below the line awards.

Favorite: Elvis

Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front

Dark Horse: Babylon

The Rest:

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Fabelmans


Best Costume Design

This is a battle of ICONS. This category is chock full of absolute legends, duking it OUT. Throw a dart, everyone deserves this award, it’s a genuine shame they can’t all win, and I bet the tally in this category ends up CLOSE.

Favorite: Babylon

Upset: Elvis

Dark Horse: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

The Rest:


Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Batman is nominated entirely for Colin Farrell’s unrecognizable makeover as The Penguin. Speaking of, the television spin-off is filming now.

Favorite: Elvis

Upset: The Whale

Dark Horse: The Batman

The Rest:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Visual Effects

The second safest bet of the night.

Favorite: Avatar: The Way of Water

Upset: Top Gun: Maverick

Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

The Rest:

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best International Feature Film

I cried my eyes out in EO. It was a bad year for little donkeys in film. 

Favorite: All Quiet on the Western Front

Upset: Argentina, 1985

Dark Horse: EO 

The Rest:


The Quiet Girl

Best Animated Feature Film

GDT and Scott Gustafson turned a fairy tale into an anti-fascist insta-classic. No arguments. Also, Puss in Boots is LEGIT, the character design for Death is OUTRAGEOUS. There should be a special award just for the coolest animated character of the year. 

Favorite: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Upset: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Dark Horse: Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

The Rest:

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Best Documentary Feature Film

2022 was a great year for documentaries, and this should be any combination of All The Breathes, Fire of Love, or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, but it’s going to be Navalny, as a way to signal support for Ukraine. 

Favorite: Navalny

Upset: Fire of Love

Dark Horse: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

The Rest:

All That Breathes        

A House Made of Splinters


Best Documentary Short Film

The shorts! Honestly, the categories that can make or break your Oscar pool, especially in a topsy-turvy year. 

Favorite: Stranger at the Gate

Upset: The Elephant Whisperers

Dark Horse: How Do You Measure a Year?

The Rest:


The Martha Mitchell Effect

Best Animated Short Film

And yes, I have actually watched all of these.

Favorite: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Upset: My Year of Dicks

Dark Horse: Ice Merchants

The Rest:

The Flying Sailor

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Best Live Action Short Film

The problem is, the voters don’t watch all of them, so you never how many are actually voting in these categories, which makes prognosticating nearly impossible.

Favorite: Le Pupille

Upset: An Irish Goodbye

Dark Horse: The Red Suitcase

The Rest:


Night Ride