We are marching ever closer to Dunesday, December 18, when both Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday hit theaters in a holiday apocalypse. Hallmark should make a Christmas rom-com about a Dune fan and a Marvel fan falling in love while working at the theater that weekend.

Anyway, Dune 3 dropped its final trailer and, finally, here is the payoff of Frank Herbert’s story, in which the warnings about white saviors come true and Paul Atreides becomes the villain of the piece. It looks fantastic.

You almost can’t fault the visuals, except for the marked appropriation that consistently plagues this franchise (which is, to be fair, inherited from Herbert’s books). I really wish Denis Villeneuve and his team came up with more interesting space looks than making the various peoples into amalgams of real-world cultures. The shot of the Fremen army fighting the Asian-coded people is not great. Not defeating the charges of ethnic/cultural appropriation. Maybe there will be a third act reckoning with this piece of Dune, but I kind of doubt it. Also, if you’re wondering, yes, that is Timothée Chalamet featured in “Desert Chant” on the soundtrack. At least it’s not a ululating woman (again).

All year I’ve been wondering about Dunesday, as Marvel has fallen off in the cultural conversation while Dune has become a very admired franchise, seen as a symbol of studios “doing it right”, combining commercial appeal and artistic integrity. At this point, though, roughly six weeks out from a kind of lowercase d-day, I think the numbers are going to go in Marvel’s favor.

Doomsday advance tickets went on sale in September and right out of the gate, demand was high, with $50 million in pre-sales three months before opening day. Now, there is a report that Doomsday has topped $125 million in pre-sales, though I will note that I cannot find a more solid source for this number than a random “indie trade” that typically reports on Indian cinema at this time. Not disparaging the source, just saying this one is not coming from industry channels.

Based on the $50 million figure from Variety, though, it does seem likely Doomsday has already topped $100 million in pre-sales. Like I don’t really doubt the figure, I just wish there was better reporting on it, and projecting prediction markets doesn’t f-cking count! I am not basing my box office reporting on Andy from marketing’s vibes. I will, however, base it on MY vibes, which come from two decades of experience and a peek at internal Disney projections—they have one of the best algorithms in the business.

My prediction: Doomsday gets all the money; Dune will get all the awards. Doomsday is going to open huge, maybe right around $300 million. I’ll refine this closer to opening day when there’s more projection/tracking data, but I think we’re looking at a 2010’s style opening weekend for Marvel. And it will make a sh-t ton of money through the new year, landing in the neighborhood of $1.5-2 billion. If word of mouth is favorable, it’ll push Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s numbers. (I have heard Doomsday is a bummer, similar to Infinity War in tone, so we’ll see how word of mouth goes.)

Dune: Part Three, meanwhile, will still make a ton of money. We could have a $400 million opening weekend on December 18, or close to it. I think Doomsday will make more, but Dune will still make a lot. And then, of course, come the Oscars, where I think Dune: Part Three will play like Return of the King and rake in a ton of nominations. Like easily at least ten. Between Dune and The Odyssey, it’s going to be a great Oscars for the entity that was Warner Bros. Pictures.

And I anticipate Marvel fans will be big babies about Dune getting more critical/awards recognition, even though their favorite team will win the box office battle, so I would like to remind them right now:

Dune: Part Three trailer stills

Photo credits: Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures

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