The Sinners campaign strategists have their work cut out for them as we get deeper into awards season

There was a screener for Sinners yesterday in New York at SAG-AFTRA Foundation ahead of the Gothams and Lupita Nyong’o moderated the panel. She of course knows Ryan Coogler and Michael B Jordan well, Black Panther is the most famous example of their shared connection. And, of course, the timing is obvious. We are in the final stretch of campaigning before the end of year holiday break – and Sinners is a contender. It was, perhaps, the first contender as the movie was released wayyyy back in the spring, to critical acclaim, and a massively unexpected box office, and then some weird ass industry reaction to its success. This is why some of us are kinda worried about Sinners and award season and what the discourse might be. Because the film is inventive and bold, an original story, a cross-genre masterpiece, and it MADE MONEY, a lot of f-cking money. And yet so many in the industry, including the entertainment media, just keep anointing another movie that, um, has struggled to break even, to the point where they keep talking around the box office.

I’m not trying to say that Sinners is an underdog, but it's also far from a Goliath. Like Rolling Stone just released a list of its 20 best movies of the year, and somehow Eddington made it and not Sinners, LOLOLOLOL. Anyway, the point is, the Sinners campaign strategists have their work cut out for them. And it’ll be interesting to see how the narrative will shift as we get deeper into award season.

Sarah mentioned earlier that Wunmi Mosaku won the supporting actor award last night at the Gothams which is a big boost to her chances for an Oscar nomination because as I have been saying for weeks, she’s been frustratingly overlooked. Wunmi wasn’t there to accept, Ryan Coogler did on her behalf, and several other members of the cast were present to receive the ensemble tribute.

Meanwhile, One Battle After Another was nominated for six Gothams and won three, including best director for Paul Thomas Anderson. As Sarah noted in her post, Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident is really coming on strong in the race but, of course, OBAA continues to be the frontrunner and PTA’s march to his first Oscar for directing is on track. As expected, Maya Rudolph was with him at the event and he shouted her out during his acceptance.

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#PaulThomasAnderson thanks his wife, Maya Rudolph, and wishes her a happy anniversary while accepting Best Feature for #OneBattleAfterAnother at the #GothamAwards
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Leonardo DiCaprio, who was with PTA and Maya the night before was not nominated and wasn’t at the Gothams (though it wouldn’t be a surprise if he showed up for the after-party) but he is for sure in the mix for the best actor Oscar. Michael B Jordan, playing two parts in Sinners, has to hustle a lot more than Leo does on the circuit. And it’ll interesting to see who else makes the cut, because there is no clear frontrunner here. But you know who’s surging?

Ethan Hawke.

Over the last two weeks, Ethan has popped up on almost every prediction list for a best actor nomination for his work in Blue Moon. Sarah saw the film at TIFF and in her review, she wrote that he gives a “towering performance” and reaction coming out of recent screenings of the film have been rapturous, so the hype feels organic. Ethan was at the Gothams last night, I’m sure his campaign is well aware of the buzz and it’s hitting at exactly the right time. Both Ethan and Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) are steadily climbing in the rankings but Jeremy Allen White seems to be decelerating. At this point it looks like he's sitting in the 7 or 8th spot, maybe even lower, on the predictions lists. I’m curious then how much of a push JAW gives this in the next few weeks.

Finally, Marty Supreme and Timothée Chalamet, not nominated at the Gothams so no appearance here but still staying in all the Oscar conversations because that’s the kind of reputation he’s established for himself at this point in his career. He was nominated last year for playing a revered pop culture icon. This year he’s basically playing a punk, a pop culture troll in a time before we even knew to use that language to describe this kind of behaviour. How will the Academy respond?