We have looked at the chances of House GreyjoyHouse Lannister, and the Night King winning it all in the final season of Game of Thrones. This week, we’re talking House Targaryen which, thanks to incest, has an almost 100% chance of ending up on the Iron Throne. There are several paths to victory for House Targaryen, so let’s break it down and see who has the best shot at being crowned. First Daenerys Stormborn, of the House Targaryen, First Of Her Name, the Unburnt, Queen of the Andals and the First Men, Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea, Breaker of Chains, and Mother of Dragons. No one is rolling into the final season with more titles or superlatives, she also has a giant army at her command, and she has two dragons left (and I am not convinced Viserion can’t be brought back around to Team Not Dead Yet). Plus, she’s got a new lover-nephew, so she’s really upholding the Targaryen Way of copulating with your relatives to keep that white hair and purple eyes going. 

Dany has a solid chance at winning it all, as she has spent seven previous seasons painstakingly learning the arts of conquering AND governance over in Essos. She inspires loyalty wherever she goes—some of that is the dragons, sure—and people genuinely seem to like her as a leader and a person. She’s trying to reclaim the throne her family lost, so she has the motivation unlike, say, Jon Snow, who does not want to be a king. And Dany becoming queen would cap a great comeback story, her re-taking of Westeros echoing Aegon the Conqueror’s effort to unify the Seven Kingdoms into one nation. Dany is also not a fool, so there is no way she is writing Cersei off as “handled”, and she will undoubtedly keep an eye on the situation to the south. Also, as annoyed as I assume Sansa is at Jon for giving up the North as an independent kingdom, I bet Sansa and Dany get along GREAT. They’re both smart, political ladies who have learned to wield considerable power in a world of men. I look forward to that alliance.

However, Dany has one significant strike against her, and that is the legacy of her father, the Mad King. Especially in the last couple seasons, we have seen a thread of Daenerys struggling with an impulse to do lots of murder, to go straight to burning all of her enemies and laying waste to anyone standing in her way. So far, her advisors and her own recognition of her family’s predisposition to madness has kept her in check, and she has done relatively limited damage with her dragons. But that willingness to destroy is there. The Targaryen name took a hit when her family was murdered/exiled, and it’s on Daenerys to redeem it, which is why despite all her many qualifications, it seems most likely Dany dies in a noble sacrifice, restoring the Targaryen name by proving the family has more than just a will to destroy, but also cancelling her queendom.

There are still two other Targaryen possibilities, though, the next one being Jon Snow. He’s a Technical Targ, so if Jon Snow ends up King of Westeros, well, then a Targaryen is once again ruling. It’s a double victory if Jon claims the name “Targaryen”, but even if he doesn’t, the one-time heir’s son is now king, so mission accomplished, House Targaryen is restored. The other possibility is if both Jon and Dany die, their incest baby becomes the heir, and eventually, a Targaryen is back in power. Maybe this baby will take a new surname—I suggest “Starkaryen”, or “Tarstark”—but he or she is still three-quarters Targ in blood. So, if you split hairs, the odds of any Targaryen ending up on the throne are REALLY good.

Daenerys Stormborn’s final odds: 10-1

An Unspecified Targaryen’s final odds: 3-1