On Monday, the season 11 queens walked the red carpet for the finale of RuPaul’s Drag Race. The finale is usually filmed with several different outcomes, and the true winner is only revealed when the episode airs. On the red carpet though, to quote Anne Hathaway, everyone really stepped their pussies up. 

Early sashayers from this season brought their A-game. My favourite is Kahana Montrese’s leather, kinda-punk, winged outfit. We didn’t get to see much of her this season, and I think it’s a shame because this look is EVERYTHING. Soju’s makeup and hair are flawless, and she’s gorgeous in that dress – a great way to salute her heritage. Brooke Lynn Hytes is dressed like a winner (more on that in a bit) while A’keria and Yvie are perfect examples of how to elevate signature looks. I’m in love with Yvie’s muscle dress, and Akeria’s feathered, green gown makes me think that maybe she should play Maleficent instead of Angelina Jolie. There’s too much glamour to describe on this carpet so be sure to look at all the photos in the gallery below. 

Silky’s roach dress is a callback to the facekini episode where she told Michelle she was dressed like a fly but actually looked like a cockroach. The finale and reunion are filmed while the season airs, so queens often reference key moments from the season. Was the cockroach a memorable moment in the season? I don’t think so. Silky probably wants it to be a moment, which is why she’s wearing this dress. Top 4 queens don’t need to create moments out of nothing, so what does that tell us about Silky?

Tonight is the penultimate episode of Drag Race before the finale. Tomorrow morning, we’ll know which of the remaining queens will be within snatching distance of the crown. 

Back in March, I predicted the following top 5 after the first episode:

Miss Vanjie Vanessa Mateo
Brooke Lynn Hytes
Yvie Oddly
Scarlet Envy
Plastique Tiara

I’m at 3/5. Not bad considering we started with 15 queens? Also, I think we can all agree that Scarlet Envy was eliminated too soon. Let’s talk actual odds of winning:

RuPaul’s Probability Race

Top Contender: 
Brooke Lynn Hytes has stayed insanely consistent in the top, almost to a Bianca Del Rio level of coasting. Aside from the one MAJOR hiccup (you do not disrespect Celine that way), which of course led to the best lip sync of the season, she has either been in the top or won the challenge. She also has the most wins at three main challenge victories. My money is on Brooke Lynn, not only because she’s talented AND Canadian, but because she’s a master strategist. 

Last week in Untucked, Silky called Brooke Lynn out on her duplicity for critiquing Silky’s outfit on the runway but praising it to her face. Brooke Lynn also pretended that pairing Silky with Soju wasn’t strategy, but bitch, obviously it was. She knows how to play the game, but she’s adept at making it seem like she isn’t playing the game. She can also sell herself well. 80% of her looks are about presentation, even when in the bottom. Even after the Snatch Game mishap, Brooke Lynn started a sale on her merch as an “apology to Celine and to Canada.” She’s an intelligent but unassuming strategist, and I think that’s going to take her all the way to the top. 

Close Contenders:
A’keria C. Davenport is stunning; she has the style, she has the look, and she has the personality. For a queen who’s so well put together on the runway, she can also get down and dirty in the acting challenges. A’keria is the total package wrapped up with the ribbon of grace, so she stands a strong chance of being the winner. That being said, I think she’s lacking a little bit of a star quality. What I mean by that is that she doesn’t always stand out amongst some of the other top 5. She’s definitely capable (like in the LADP episode) but the fact that we don’t see it every episode could cost her the top spot. 

Yvie Oddly is also a strong contender for the win. She’s completely different, unique, and brings a whole new level of creativity to the show. In the past, Ru has rewarded “oddballs” like Sharon Needles, Jinkx Monsoon, and even Sasha Velour. These queens are praised as the future of drag, and Yvie falls in the same category. She’s also loved by fans – an important consideration for the decision. 

Distant Runner-Ups:
Although I often find Silky Nutmeg Ganache to be obnoxious and annoying, there are moments that show her depth and intelligence; I wish we saw more of that. Silky has personality, and she commands a room (whether or not people want to be commanded). I think this is what has brought her so far in the competition. At the same time, she’s not great at accepting legitimate criticism, which is why her outfits and her polish have been severely lacking in the past few episodes. I also think that fans would riot if she won, so she’s likely out of the running. 

Miss Vanessa Vanjie Mateo
Unfortunately, I think Miss Vanessa Vanjie Mateo has the worst chance of being in the top 4. Of the top 5, she’s the only one who hasn’t won a challenge. She’s also received the same critiques for her outfits and her inability to give anything but Vanjie at a 10. It’s tough because she’s clearly trying, and she has a great personality, but she’s not succeeding, and that probably means she’s going to be walking backwards off the stage pretty soon. If we believe the predictions from the promo though, Vanjie still has yet to “cut Brooklyn’s ribbon”. (That’s sounds like a euphemism for gay sex but it’s not. I think?) I wonder if this means Branjie are going to lip sync this episode.